Dan Haren Speculation

 

Brian Cashman has done a great job recently of avoiding the temptation to trade his best prospects for pitchers who were not worth the price. However, in hindsight, one error he did make was not completing a deal for Dan Haren when Arizona traded him. He reportedly would not give up Dellin Betances, Joba Chamberlain, and Hector Noesi for Haren at the July trading deadline last year. Haren is the number two starter the Yankees are looking for, and getting him without having to give up Jesus Montero or Manny Banuelos is a no brainer in my mind. It is obviously easy to say after Joba’s injury but he was not being used as a starter in 2010, and a bullpen arm is not valuable enough to stop you from acquiring a pitcher like Haren. Maybe Cashman will get another chance to redeem himself, but it would cost him a lot more than it reportedly would have before.

The Angels and Yankees do match up pretty nicely as trade partners. The Yankees can help fill the Angels major needs at third base and catcher, where they do not have MLB quality players currently on their roster, and nobody ready in the minors. The top of the Angels rotation is great, but if they lose Haren their rotation would be a little thin. Here are two packages I find to be fair: Jesus Montero, Dellin Betances, Brandon Laird, and a lower level prospect for Haren, or Montero, Eduardo Nunez, Hector Noesi, and David Phelps for Haren. The Angels could want a stronger pitcher back in Betances, or a stronger third basemen back in Nunez. I find the first package to be stronger, but maybe the Angels would think differently. Haren would be exactly the kind of pitcher the Yankees want to put behind CC Sabathia.  He had an excellent year last year going 16-10, with a 3.17 ERA, 192 strikeouts, and a 1.02 WHIP. Haren also only walked an astonishing 1.25 batters per 9 innings last year.  His arsenal of pitches is outstanding with a four seam fastball, a two seam fastball, splitter, cutter and a spiked curve.  Haren does not throw especially hard but still has racked up at least 190 strikeouts in the last 5 years. The downfall is that he is already 31 with a lot of innings under his belt.  The Yankees may fear giving him a long term deal.  He does have team options in his contract for the next two years. A rotation of Sabathia, Haren, Nova, Hughes, and Burnett certainly looks appealing though.

I personally doubt the Angels would trade Haren unless they acquired C.J. Wilson, who they are rumored to be interested in. Haren is still under team control for the next two years, and the Angels are not a small market team, so they can afford him. However, if they got Wilson, they would feel comfortable with a Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, and Ervin Santana top three, and may want to improve their offense. Montero would be an instant middle of the lineup hitter for them, which they definitely need.  I would love for Cashman to be able to make up for an error in judgment and go get Haren. However, the Angels will ask for more than the Diamondbacks did and Cashman wasn’t willing to pay that price, so one would wonder if he would in fact pay more. I think he would be willing to because he can undo his previous mishap with Haren. Also it helps that Haren is a proven, elite pitcher. If the Angels will listen, the Yankees should consider Haren for sure because I think he would be an excellent fit for them.

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About Matthew B

I am a student at William Paterson University and studying to become a sportswriter. I have a huge passion for the Yankees and love sharing my opinions on them. I can analyze every aspect of the Yankees very well. I am very active on Twitter so feel free to contact me there Twitter: @RAYROBERT9

Posted on November 29, 2011, in Hot Stove, Signing & Trade Speculation and tagged , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 30 Comments.

  1. I really like Haren but the price tag will be significant if the Angels decide to make him available.

    I would not trade Montero, Nunez & Noesi for him. Montero & Nunez are the team’s only MLB-ready position player prospects. With the exception of Romine, all of our other strong position prospects are at least 2 years away so this would really eliminate any chance to get younger on the field.

    I’m really against trading Montero for anyone unless a true elite #1 pitcher becomes available. While Haren is excellent and arguably a low-end #1, he isn’t much different than C.J. Wilson who we could get for just $$$.

    Check out the numbers over the last 2 seasons:

    Haren 28-22 7.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.97 HR/9, 41% GB, 3.54 era / 3.34 fip / 3.39 xfip / 10.8 WAR
    Wilson 31-15 7.9 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, 49% GB, 3.14 era / 3.39 fip / 3.72 xfip /10.5 WAR

    The numbers are nearly identical! They are both 31, born 2 months apart. The main difference is CJ is a lefty who tends to walk more hitters but also gets more GB’s and allows less HRs.

    If the choice is having Haren @ 2 yrs/$28.25M or CJ @ 5 yrs/$90M BUT I also get to keep Montero, Nunez & Noesi, I’m taking Wilson. With the new CBA, the Yanks will have less opportunity to find the next Montero, Nunez & Noesi.

    • Can Jorge Vazquez be a chip in any of these trade ideas? Probably not much future with him for the Yankees.

      he did mash last year but really doesn’t walk a lot.

    • I’m a big Haren fan, so I am strongly in favor of almost any non-Montero based trade for him. However, I highly doubt the Angels would trade him for a package that doesn’t include Montero. I will throw this one out there as a possibility: Banuelos, Romine, Nunez, and another pitcher. I really have no idea if LAA would bite on that, but I’d be in favor of it. Not including Montero, I could also see the Angels having a degree of interest in Gary Sanchez. As Matt brought up, don’t forget that Jorge Vazquez absolutely mashed at AAA this past year (.262 AVG / .314 OBP / .516 SLG / .357 wOBA / 32 HR / 93 RBI). They could put Vazquez at 1B, and put Morales at 3B, to fill their need there.

      I’m less intent on signing Wilson, than trading for Haren (non-Montero deal), because C.J. will most likely get a 5 year contract. Also, Haren has more of a track record than Wilson. Not to say I wouldn’t love to have Wilson in the rotation for the Yanks next year – just that I would not like to have Wilson pitching for the Yankees on the back-end of that contract.

    • Fish you forgot to mention that Wilson also gave up fewer hits per 9. Wilson would be a very nice fit for the Yankees.

      Haren nice pitcher but there is ZERO chance of the Yankees trading for him. The Yankees are not going to give up the talent needed to acquire him.

  2. After reading the winter reports on Noesi maybe we would be giving up more in my 2nd proposal than the 1st. I just feel as though Haren is the type of pitcher Cashman has saved all these type of prospects for.

  3. Do others think like i’m thinking that Cashman is going to make a big move soon.

    he really can’t go two years in a row without something huge right?

  4. My problem with giving up our top people is the New CBA. As some of you know, I wouldn’t trade any of our top players anyhow, let alone the new CBA.
    I think Fishjam and a few others have the same idea, CBA will change the way the Yankees do business.
    Giving up top talent, we have in AAA, AA, A is a long gone game we can no longer play. The field is no longer a level one…when envy turns ugly, this is what happens.

    The Yankees are the best run organization in baseball and happen to be in NY as were the Giants and Dodgers at one time. The Yankees were taking up too much of the sports air so, the Giants and Dodgers left it to the Yankees. Even with the Mets showing up later, it couldn’t stop the Organization that we know to-day as the New York Yankees. For many many years the Yankees put the profits back into the team, now they are being cut off at the knees….why?
    Why, because other owners bought their teams with an eye on profit…for them…most (not all) owners pocket the profit and spend as little as they can get away with…mostly using Yankee tax money…to meet their payroll. Envy on some of the other teams part, or is it the way of some in this country to cry about things being fair? They want to take what you have worked very hard for and keep it for themselves…they call that fair and leveling the playing field! Me, I call it Socialism or Liberalism! MLB calls it, making teams more equal…yup!

    • Great thoughts Ken. I fully agree with you. That’s why i don’t want to see a trade for Garza or Haren when we could just get Wilson.

      Or if not Wilson than role the dice with Darvish.

  5. Think you are overstating it a little Ken. This still is the Yankees we are talking about here. If they feel they are getting value in a big time player that they believe in they will make the move. I would normally agree with you Matt on taking the FA over the trade but I just dont see Wilson as a #2. Haren and Garza however I do believe would be #2 starters that should be explored.

    • Yeah I here. It’s not like I’m going to be pissed if the Yankees get any of those 3 guys though. It’s like splitting hairs in my opinion.

      but to me with how hard its going to be to field young talent with the new draft rules i’d rather like Ken said hold onto the prospects.

      • Thank you Matt…
        I also agree that we must look at other players (pitchers) but, money is a good trade bait. If we must give up a player for a #1-2 type pitcher, I would give up guys that are not (almost) sure things.
        As Nova showed this year, when worked into the starting line-up slowly, good things can happen. Do we not have about 3 guys as good as Nova? Yes, I think we do!
        What is wrong with…CC, Nova, Garcia, Phil/AJ and one of Noesi, Betances, Phelps, Warren or Mitchell?
        Noesi is being worked out in the fall league and doing well, he also pitched a bit in the reg., season. So we would be going with 4 regulars and one rookie, No biggie!
        All of the guys are very high on potential and maybe they can make it in the Show and win a few games for us…as did Nova this year! If the thoughts are going to be; “Always go for the proven pitcher”. How are we ever going to compete with other teams that bring (and keep) their top players to the show! Bring them up and see what they can or can’t do!
        What say you guys…possible or not?

        • I largely agree with what you said Ken about the “youth movement”. However, we have to remember that just because Nova did very well in his rookie season this year, it doesn’t mean others such as Noesi/Phelps/Warren/Mitchell will have the same type of success. I’m all for breaking in the youth, but it’s also the Yankees, who are all about winning the WS, every year. It’s very hard to make that guarantee to themselves and the fans, if they take that risk on rookies. The reality is- we just don’t know if Nova will follow up this good season with another in 2012. Although it would be nice, we can’t expect Freddy Garcia to have an ERA in the 3s next season, like he did in 2011. As you know, Hughes and A.J. are both question marks. In addition, any of the Noesi/Phelps/Warren/Mitchell group, you just can’t really completely rely on. Therefore, I think the Yankees definitely need to add 1 starting pitcher to the rotation for next year, someone who is proven. It’ll still keep their options open as far as breaking in a Hector Noesi, etc., into the rotation.

  6. I agree with your for sure Mike. Sure Nova was great but remember Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes in the rotation their 1st year. You do not know what you will get with these guys sometimes.

  7. Matthew and Matt….
    Thanks for your feed back!
    IPK and Phil was an ill timed move, one brings up one rookie at a time not two. If anyone they think is good enough, comes up they only need to worry about one at a time.
    As far as Nova goes, he had already started to adjust his game before the end of the season. He seems able to “adapt and improvise” when necessary, I look for a bit more of the same +/-.
    Of course, all this is speculation, AJ Phil and Nova could all take a step back, or forward…who knows, not I. :)

    • Really the only proven is C.C. so far next year IMO.

    • Ken I do think that the Yankees did learn a lot from what happened with Ian and Phil. Both of them were too immature for NY when they were called up. Nova was mature an it showed in his performance. If the Yankees want to continue to go younger in the rotation then they need too bullet proof the pen. They really could use a couple of arms one left handed like a Thorton, Marshall or Brey an another power right handed reliever like a Greg Holland. The Yankees were very good last year in the 6th, 8th and 9th innings but terrible in the 7th.

      • you think Whelan will have a shot? he did come up last year. Wasn’t that impressive but could have been nerves.

        • Sadly no….I doubt very much if he’ll get any shot with the Yankees. I think Phelps has a better chance of helping the Yankees in the pen this year then he does.

          • yeah he seemed to do very well in AAA but once he came to the big show it all went out the window.

            Dan do you think Noesi will get a legit shot as a starter if no others moves are made to the starting rotation?

            • If I were in charge Hughes would be gone with Noesi taking his place. If Cashman’s recent comments are true that Noesi is touching 98 in winter ball then I want him in the rotation.

      • There is zero reason to trade valuable prospects for someone like Thornton or Marshall. You can say what you want about how they fared in the 7th inning, but Soriano is bound to pitch better next year, and they also have Joba coming back. Paying the price for one of those guys is simply not an intelligent allocation of resources.

        http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/2011/11/just-say-no-to-matt-thornton-36767

        • Now obviously he would be an improvement over Logan, and a very nice addition to the bullpen. But is it really smart to lose prospects in order to strengthen one of the team’s clear strengths? Not in my opinion.

        • That article proves my point that the Yankees need pen help! Just look Texas and KC both want lock down pens for different reasons. The Rangers want to protect a talented but young in experience rotation. The Royals can’t afford a high quality rotation but think having a shutdown pen will help them win games with a lower payroll.

          The Yankees should pay relievers good money to lock down the middle innings. This is one of the few areas in the game today that the Yankees can use their financial advantage. The cost too lock down the middle innings is so much less then adding a top of the rotation starter or a star position player. Add to that being able to lock up those innings with one of the best pens in the game they could more easily ease young starters into the rotation.

          The Yankees need pen HELP imo……………

      • dan…
        I think we have all discussed that, many times before. In fact Cashman, in a round about way…admitted they blew that one.
        Noesi seems to be unflappable and pitches well in tight spots…he may be ready to take the next step.
        We have Joba coming back…mid-season…believe it or not, I think we will see a better Joba (or the older version), he has to work hard getting into pitching shape. This is something he has never done before, so I think it will help him in the long run…I hope!

  8. Dan i disagree. The Yankees have one of if not the best pens in the league already.

    • The Yankees have a lot of question marks in their pen!
      Can Robertson do it again?
      Will Soriano stay healthy and productive?
      When will Joba return and will he be productive?
      Who is Wade and what kind of role will he take?
      Logan stinks so who is the Lefty?

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