Hot Stove Targeting: Yu Darvish

Yanks finally get a shot at

After re-signing CC Sabathia in early November, Brian Cashman announced his OffSeason goal was “Pitching, pitching, pitching.”  Yet he has remained very patient and constantly said that the price for starting pitchers in Free Agency and the trade market was unreasonably high.  Although that is very true, could it be that Cashman has stalled so he can first take a shot at his most coveted target …….Yu Darvish?

By now, everyone has read a ton about Yu but let’s analyze his pros & cons to see if he’s worth the high cash commitment it will take to get him.

Positives

Yu Darvish is the most dominating pitcher in Japanese baseball with 5 straight seasons of sub-2.00 ERAs. It’s very difficult to translate NPB stats to MLB, but to give an idea of his dominance, Yu is 76-28 with a 1.73 ERA.  This season was his best as he went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA , 10.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a miniscule 0.83 WHIP over 232 IP.

Once again, stats in Japan don’t translate well in the U.S. so it’s best to look at Yu from a scouting standpoint. From the videos I’ve seen and the scouting reports I’ve read, this is what I would say about him:

  • He’s a 25-year-old who really matured physically in the last 2 yrs. Films from early in his career were of a tall, lanky kid but it’s obvious he’s worked hard to add strength and he’s now a solid built 6’5″ 220 pounder with long arms & legs, a strong base and trunk – really an ideal pitcher’s body.
  • His solid base gives him good balance which he uses to maintain his delivery.  He has a fluid throwing motion with a slight pause that adds deception.
  • Darvish has a Plus-Fastball that sits in the 93-95 range and gets it up to 96-97.  He also throws a nice 2-seamer which is only about 1 MPH slower and gets good movement down and in on righties. Darvish also Cuts his Fastball away from righties in the 89-92 range
  • His Slider is his best pitch and a true out-pitch. He seems to change speeds on it, sometimes throwing a slower Slurve in the 79 to 82 range but its most effective when thrown harder with 2-plane break in the 83-86 range.
  • Yu throws both a Forkball and a standard ChangeUp that appear to be above average offerings as well
  • His balance and repeatable mechanics give him good command of his pitches and he attacks hitters.  Scouts have raved about his knowledge of pitching, pitchability and his competitiveness. All great attributes.

Negatives

There are really no negatives to his game.  All of the questions surrounding him are the typical ones that face any pitcher looking to make the jump from japan to the U.S.  How will he adjust to the different baseball, the 5-day rotation, the MLB hitters and the American culture.

While these are all legitimate concerns, I believe Yu is the best prepared of any Japanese pitcher to come to the U.S. ever. For one, he is still young enough to be able to adapt his routines and game as needed.  Secondly, he is a big, strong power pitcher with command who’s stuff should translate nicely to MLB.  Unlike DiceK who relied on deception and multiple off-speed pitches to get hitters to chase, Darvish comes right at hitters with stuff that will give any hitter a hard time.  He’s also been much more dominating in Japan than DiceK ever was.

Year Age Team W L SV ERA G IP SO
2005 18 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 5 5 0 3.53 14 94.1 52
2006 19 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 12 5 0 2.89 25 149.2 115
2007 20 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 15 5 0 1.82 26 207.2 210
2008 21 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 16 4 0 1.88 25 200.2 208
2009 22 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 15 5 0 1.73 23 182.0 167
2010 23 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 12 8 0 1.78 26 202.0 222
2011 24 Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters 18 6 0 1.44 28 232.0 276

Expectations

Of course he won’t dominate MLB hitters with a 1.44 ERA but I expect Darvish to have success right away and fall in as a solid #2 starter with ace potential when he reaches his prime. He’s still only 25 and growing as a pitcher so we still haven’t seen his best yet.  While the change to a 5-day rotation will take getting used to, I see Darvish as an eventual horse who could be a durable 200+ IP per year starter.

Fit for the Yankees?

Darvish is just what the Yankees need.  A big, strong, young, smart starter to slot in behind C.C. for the next 5-6 years.  The Yankee brass has been watching Yu for at least 3 years that we know of and everyone from scout Rick Williams to Director of Pro Scouting Billy Eppler to VP of Amateur Scouting Damon Oppenheimer have watched him pitch in Japan.  While Cashman is rightfully downplaying his interest in Darvish, he has conceded that he learned from his mistakes with Kei Igawa and made sure to get a full picture this time with numerous scouting reports and many different sets of eyes on him.  “I think with anything else, you learn over time.  I think we’re more prepared today than we have been in the past”, Cashman remarked when asked about Darvish.

Cost to Acquire

The bidding process is an archaic concept and a total crapshoot.  So as much as the Yankees may want him, there is no guarantee some team like the Marlins or Nationals doesn’t make a ridiculous bid that the Yanks will never have an opportunity to beat.  You get one shot at it.  It’s very difficult to estimate but I think the winning bid is going to be somewhere around the Matsuzaka bid and will be in the $40-60 Million range.

Once the posting fee is paid, Arn Tellem & Don Nomura will look to negotiate the best deal for him and I’d estimate it being a 5 or 6 year deal worth about $10-13 Million per yr. So I’d say the total outlay will be in the neighborhood of $100-130M.  When you consider that the posting fee doesn’t count towards the Luxury tax, it would seem that the total cost of signing Darvish would be the same or less than signing C.J. Wilson to a 6 yr – $100M+ deal.  Athough CJ has MLB experience, he’s also 6 full years older than Darvish and about to enter the downside of his career while the Yanks would be getting the 6 most prime seasons in a pitcher’s career from Yu.

The other obvious advantages of obtaining Darvish, is Cashman won’t have to give up any draft picks like he would for a FA or any prospects like he’d have to ship off in a trade. Also, the fact that Darvish’ salary will be significantly lower than a prime FA like CJ Wilson, it gives the team at least a chance to get the payroll under $189M for the 2014 season.  While this will be an extremely difficult chore and will preclude any other big-ticket signings for the next 3 years, it’s still a possibility.

And last but not least, there is the WOW factor and the instant media attention any team who gets Darvish will get.  Yu Darvish is an icon in Japan much like Hideki Matsui & Ichiro were so his new team will see added attendance and attention from Japanese fans and advertisers.  This is definitely important for any team.

Prediction?

I think Darvish is worth the risk since the Yanks potentially get the #2 they desperately need while keeping all their prospects, picks and keeping the total salary under control.  The big risk is the large posting fee but money is the Yankees #1 asset so why not use it?  They won’t be able to use it in the Draft or International Amateur market any longer so this is the chance to flex the financial muscle they have.  How much would they pay to acquire a Matt Cain, Josh Johnson, Stephen Strasburg or Felix Hernandez? Darvish compares favorably with those guys from a size, scouting and age standpoint – the only thing he lacks is the proof that he can succeed in MLB.

I think the Yanks will bid highly for Darvish as I think he’s their #1 target this yr.  However, teams like Texas, Washington, Toronto & Florida have also been linked as front-runners.  I wouldn’t rule out any team here. What about the Red Sox? Bobby Valentine coached in Japan for years and he said on a broadcast this year that Yu Darvish was the BEST pitcher in the WORLD! So if Bobby V. feels that strongly, you know he’s trying to lobby Boston to bid heavily. Then you have teams like Toronto, Texas & Florida who all are said to be raising payroll significantly this yr. And how about Epstein in Chicago? Or maybe the Angels if they miss on CJ….the possibilities are endless and the process gives any team a chance.

If you were the Yanks, what would be your bid and what will the winning bid be? I’d bid……$55,000,055 if I were Cashman but I have a feeling some crazy team will bid over $60 Million.

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About fishjam25

Was a 4-yr Pitcher and Communications Major at Seton Hall University in the 90s. His knowledge & opinion of the game comes from his background as a player and ardent lifetime Yankee fan. However, Fishjam also incorporates sabermetrics and statistical support to form a well-rounded view of the game.

Posted on December 8, 2011, in Hot Stove and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 88 Comments.

  1. id go 75M on the posting, with the new CBA limiting the yankees ability to use their financial might, id say Darvish is a must get, The yankees gain not only a potenial number 2 starter, but they also get the M<arketing Draw that They once had with Hidecki Matsui, which will offset some of the cost. my prediction is Darvish has been Cashmans Target all along and in all likelihood will be a yankee

    • I certainly hope you are right! Cashman sure blew it with Cliff Lee & a couple of others. The Yankees need pitching, pitching & pitching & have for about 3 years now. Cahsman just got an extension on his contract, he better earn it!!!! I am a fervent Yankee fan & want to see them win another world series this year, the only thing that will get them there is pitching (starting & bullpen). Have I mentioned they need pitching????

      • Renee…good afternoon. Yes, I think you mentioned they need pitching, And, yes you are so right. But, regarding Cliff Lee. To of traded for him, prior to him becoming a free agent, was going to cost some fine young players…for only 3 months. Lastly, Lee and his wife, rejected the Yankees higher offer, to sign with the Phillies. Hang in there, good things happen.

        • Patrick, I know what you are saying, but for Lee to have turned down the Yankees because of what happened to his wife at Yankee stadium is absurd. I think it was her ego rather than anything else that was hurt. We all know that Yankees fans love their team, but I don’t think what happened to her was so terrible & I do believe that Lee never had any intention to come to the Yankees. I think he knew all along he wanted to go to the Phillies no matter how much other teams would offer. He was just playing one against the other, knowing all along what team he would sign with. I hope you are right about good things happening.

      • Renee – What would you bid for Yu? Yanks only get one shot at this bid…..I’d adjust my $55Million bid I stated in the article and would go as high as $65M but I’m really starting to think the Yanks are getting serious about this reduced budget and may not bid on Darvish aggressively. I hope I’m wrong.

        • If I were Cashman I think I would go somewhere between 65M & 75M. They need to do whatever they have to do to get such a good catch if he is as good as they say he is. The last few years the Yanks have come close to winning the world series, but their pitching hasn’t been able to compete, so no wins. I also think they need Texeira & A-Rod to do what they are getting paid for. Don’t get me wrong, I love them both, but we need them to step up again this year. They obviously need a good designated hitter as well. Not quite sure who is out there as a designated hitter, so if there is anyone you can think of please let me know. Thanks.

          • Their DH = Jesus Montero next year.

            • agreed. Montero is the DH next year no need to look else where. Cashman has held him out of many trades. It’s now Montero’s turn to show why Cashman is so fond of him.

            • Mike, I know they were saying they would use Montero as the DH, but isn’t he a little young to waste all his other talents & just use him as a DH & utility player? They could groom him for bigger & better things, don’t you think? I think they need to find someone somewhat older with more experience hitting, I don’t mean a 40 year old who has been around a long time, but just experienced & good at it.

              • If i can jump in here. I see where your going. but you have to use a mix of home grown talent and that’s what he is. You can’t keep him in the minors forever. Montero probably would have started on many teams last for the whole season. Posada was blocking Montero from coming up all year last yet.

                IMO Montero should have been playing over Posada last year.

                • Hey Matt, I agree that Posada should not have been the DH last year, he just couldn’t make the adjustment & was so unhappy in that roll, as good a hitter as was while he was catching, you could see & he himself admitted that he wanted to contribute more to the team. Once they saw how uncomfortable in the roll of DH he was, they should have made the move last year, but to make Montero the DH for the year & not tap the rest of his potential is crazy. Starting him as utility guy with the hopes of him replacing one of the other players as a position player some day would be great. But to use him as a DH at his age is wrong. They have made so many mistakes with their young players recently (i.e. Jobba & Phil Hughes), I would hope the powers that be would learn from them. What do you think?

                • Matt, I agree completely. Quite simply there is no place for Montero on the Yankees other than DH and in 2011 that was even more true. And the Yankees weren’t about to kick Posada and his Yankees legacy to the curb in April or May or even June of 2011 regardless of how poorly he played. Even for the next few years Montero IF he stays with the Yankees (and I’m not sure that’s a given) will be their DH. He’s not going to move to 1st base with Tex there. He’s not going to move to one of the corner outfield positions he gives up to much defensively over what the Yankees currently have in those positions. So the Yankees have 3 options with Montero. First, as we know have him DH. Second, let him spell Martin occasionally when someone other then AJ or Nova are on the mound to see if he can be a backup catcher. Third, trade him sometime around the trade deadline either one for one or as part of a package around the trade deadline this coming season when his value hopefully will still be very high for one of the very, very good FA to be at the end of the season. My personal opinion is that the Yankees will eventually trade him and that he will NOT be in a Yankees uniform for the 2013 season. In my opinion he is far more valuable to the Yankees if he can bring them either alone or as the centerpiece of a package an ace or very, very solid #2 like a Matt Cain. And who know by the 2013 season even Felix Hernandez might be up on the block. Just the opinion of a very long time Yankees fan.

              • Having Montero at DH wouldn’t waste his talents at all. His talent is in his hitting, not his glove. All that really matters it that he gets a ton of ABs this year, which he will, by DHing, and playing some C/1B.

  2. Fish…I believe the Yankees will go a little more then 10 and 10 over Dice K.

  3. Bill/Dan – You guys may be right. Yanks may go all out for Darvish as I hope they will. It’s a little hard to compare it DiceK’s bidding because DiceK’s bid/salary turned out to be a poor investment and we know Igawa was a total loss.

    Personaly, I’d go whatever it takes to win the bid but it’s sooooo hard to determine an appropriate bid.

    Dan – How much would you bid if you were the Yankees?

  4. I’m a bit shocked CJ Wilson only got 5 years $77.5 Million. That’s less than AJ & Lackey. For that price I’m surprised the Yanks weren’t involved at all.

    His signing with the Angels as well as Pujols makes it possible for LA to move some players/salaries. A quick look at their payroll seems they are in the $170-180M range now although I’m sure they will be making trades. They have 3 First basemen in Pujols, kendry Morales & Trumbo. One could DH but they already have Abreu @$9M as the DH. And they have a full OF with stud Mike Trout needing a place to play. They will be VERY active.

    From a Yankee standpoint, perhaps Haren or Ervin Santana become available but I have a feeling the Angels will keep all their pitchers a make a run at it this yr.

    • Just another reason to be mad about the AJ contract. Ugh.

      I wouldn’t mind to see Santana or Haren as a Yankee. But agree with you that they might hold to everyone to try to make a run for the world series.

      • I was happy to see the Yanks were shopping AJ. However, they are going to eat more than $8M to make him attractive.

        Personally, i would eat whatever it takes to move him just to open the spot for a better pitcher and save a few bucks. It would be a HUGE admission of a mistake but if Cashman wants to salvage the situation, he should offer to eat $15-20 Million to trade AJ. That would leave 2 years @ $13-18M for the new team and the Yanks could use that $13-18M in much better ways. At $6.5 to 9M a year, AJ becomes a possibility to a NL team. Call the Marlins where he came from…..they are giving away money.

        • One thing it seems that they aren’t giving away are no trade clauses. They wouldn’t have done it for Albert Pujols or CJ Wilson

          • It’s their team policy.

          • Yeah, I think the Marlins are taking a huge gamble spending all this money. But the refusal to include no-trades is an indication they may be in fire-sale mode eventually. In a few yrs when the novelty of the new stadium has worn off, if they aren’t winning they could be in trouble and look to trade these guys.

            Both times they won the World Series, they soon followed up by dumping all salary.

            • it’s going to be interesting to see if they even sell out the ballpark for mid week games. Baseball always seem to be a tuff draw in the Florida. Both The marlins and Tampa Rays rarely sell out

        • As long as it doesn’t involve bringing in another horrible contract, such as Jason Bay, I’m all for trading AJ. Like you said, it gives them room to break in another pitcher, such as Hector Noesi, etc.

    • Although I would be ecstatic if they did, it would make no sense for the Angels to make Haren available. If anything, they might look to trade Ervin Santana and the $7.5MM he’s making in 2012 to free up a little space.

      I agree on Wilson – I thought he was going to get 5-6 years in the $85-100MM range. I think that more and more (because of the $189MM in 2014 situation) we’ll be seeing the Yankees only spend the big $$$ on elite players, not someone like Wilson.

    • Fish while those numbers are true for the Angels the Yankees never could have gotten him at that cost. The Marlins had a 6 year 100 million offer plus an option so if the Angels didn’t get him the Yankees cost would be much higher. CJ Wilson mentioned the Marlins offer himself.

      • The Marlins offered slightly more and an extra year but they wouldn’t give him a no-trade clause which is a big deal on a 5 or 6 year deal.

        We’ll never know what CJ would have cost the Yanks but we do know he was interested and wanted to meet in NY but was rebuffed. If the Yanks strike out on Darvish and on the trade front this Winter, Cashman will look bad for not taking that meeting and at least being involved in the Wilson negotiations.

        At minimum, if he didn’t have genuine interest, why not take the meeting to drive up the price? He took a meeting with Carl Crawford last year and it made Boston make a ridiculous offer.

        • Fish he took a big home town discount to be an Angel. If the Yankees are serious about 289 in 2014 then there was never any chance that he would be coming to NY.

          • Dan l……I think I am allowed to ask a question, if I do not understand? At least, I hope so.
            ie:”If the Yankees are serious about 289 in 2014 then etc”. I’ve come back to this comment twice…..what is 289?

            • Muzzle it! You disgust me! Again I wish you as much misery as a human can endure!

              • Yankee Fans Unite…..If I respond in any way, to Dans response to my harmless question, I feel I will be reprimanded. Therefore I will not. My intent was only to ask a question. That is the truth. Read my post.
                If anyone needs to be addressed by YFU, it is not I.

  5. I’d bid $60,093,011 and figure on a 6yr deal at $11MM per. Total cost $126,093,011

    Just by way of an explanation. The 93 is the number of his wins and the 11 I believe is his uniform number.

    • interesting take their. Welcome to the blog. Who were/are you wanting the yankees to get this off-season?

      • FOR THOSE THAT SAY…”I didn’t know that”…..Check out River Ave’s most recent posts. Regarding Adam Miller…”set to sign minor league deal with the Yankees”.
        31st overall pick, by Cleveland, in 2003. Fought through multiple surgeries, on a finger in his pitching hand. Throws in the high 90′s. Click on the Terry Pluto article. Nice story.

        • THE TWO…. I forgot:…. Cesar Cabral, acquired today in the Rule-5 Draft. Yanks had tried to acquire him before, but was gobbled up before they had their chance. They like him a lot, hope he sticks.
          After watching the Yes wrap-up, at 7pm tonight…they gave the impression that Texas could be the big player for Darvish, and that the Yankees may find him too expensive.
          The more facts/remarks I read on Darvish (esp. scouts.) the more I think he is real. Some Japanese pitchers have done very well in MLB………the Yankees unfortunately have yet to find the one that does well with them. This think this one is different.

          • Patrick – What did they say about the Japanese ShortStop on YES? Do they think the yankees will sign him? Seems almost like a wasted bid.

            • not much of a waste cause if he doesn’t sign the Yankees get the 2Million back.

              • Yea I don’t mean money just a waste of time/effort. Maybe I’m wrong, but if the yanks want him as a utility guy they likely won’t offer more than $2M per season and I think Nakajima made twice that in japan. Head-scratching move unless Cash has a trade brewing for Nunez.

      • Matt – Please forget my request to show me how to reply to a comment that I asked for below. I should have done what I just did to see this.

        Anyway see my response to your question below. And thanks for the Welcome

        • No problem. and your welcome. If you want check out some of the past articles. I hope you enjoy them.

          In the top right corner of the blog is a giveaway that ends tomorrow for a copy of Granderson’s new book if you want to enter.

  6. To Matt S – Before I respond to your question above. Thank you for the welcome. And can you tell me how you reply to a particular post and have it show up under the comment. Like your’s did to mine.

    I do post on several of the other Yankee blogs like RAB and TYA. I also post on NBS Sports (HBT).

    Finally to get to your question. I was kind of hoping the Yankees would go after Gio Gonzalez and they still may if Beane can get his head out of the clouds. Also and I know a lot of Yankees fans are against this but I like Oswalt on a 2 year deal if his asking price is reasonable. If for no other reason the Yankees have several pitchers waiting in the wings if Oswalt were to have some back problems during the season that could certainly fill in for a period of time.

    Again, thanks for the welcome.

    • Forgive the typo. Should be: NBC sports (HBT)

    • Ahhh good question . If you are now going to post under this put your cursor next to the date and time and the button Reply will appear. click that than you can post under what someone writes. Hope that helps.

      Not sure Oswalt will go for a two year deal from what i read he seems set in a 3 year deal. I wouldn’t mind seeing him on the Yankees though.

      You are right about Gonzalez with Beane he is asking for Cashmans 1st born to go with all the prospects for him.

    • UFY – I wouldn’t mind Oswalt IF, and there are 2 BIG IFS:

      1) That the Yankee doctors check him out and clear his back. Back injuries are chronic and are very difficult injuries for pitchers.

      2) They can get him on a reasonable 2 yr deal. Oswalt is asking for 3 years and now that CJ & Buehrle are gone, some team may go 3 yrs on him. that’s too much of a risk for the Yanks and also gives them another big contract in 2014.

      • and if Noesi gives the Yankees a good year and proves he can be a starter that’s more reason to only want Oswalt for 2.

        Also we have the two Killers B’s in waiting another reason to only want Oswalt for only 2 and no more.

  7. Just read this “Now that Darvish has been posted, teams will have until 4:00pm CST on December 14th (four business days) to submit bids”, tweets Buster Olney.

  8. Need to clear out the clutter – aka AJ – to create an opening.

  9. May be if then can can Darvish that might entice the Steinbrenners to pay a bit more to move him.

  10. Fishjam…
    Do you notice Yu has the same type of reach with his left leg as K-Rob?
    Drop and Drive, I like that…just like a rocking chair. I would bet he has no problem repeating his delivery.
    Oops! so sorry, didn’t read the posting all the way, it’s all in the last few lines.
    Still am asking if you noticed his leg?
    Darn good posting a lot more information then I had found.
    I did see some of his tapes, and that made-up my mind…we really should pull out all the stops for him!
    Cashman…just do it!

    • Hi Ken -
      Yea, Yu & DRob both get excellent leg extension although they go about their deliveries a little differently.

      As you stated, Yu has the classic Tom Seaver drop-and-drive, and really pushes off his bent back leg for maximum power.

      Robertson, on the other hand, stands tall with his shoulders straight back and pushes off his stiff back leg to finish his delivery with his arm motion over a stiff front-leg to get as much down-hill effect & follow-through as possible.Despite being less than 6′ tall, he probably delivers the ball as close to the batter as any pitcher in baseball.

      Both pitchers use their whole bodies and have great balance, strength and athleticism to repeat their deliveries over and over again.

      • Fishjam…
        I think Yu will adapt to the five day rotation ok. His delivery is a lot less strenious the D-Robs and he is bigger.
        Not much to criticize with Yu or D-Rob for that matter.
        Have a good day! 8)

  11. I don’t see the DH position be termed as a “role player” DH is an important part of an American League lineup.

    He will be most likely playing every day as the DH so he will be a huge part to the team.

    Martin is the catcher so he won’t go their. So for now DH is the spot. Some say Montero’s catching skills won’t translate well to the MLB. That is yet to be determined to me though.

    Montero could also probably get some work at 1B this year.

    Some have mentioned on this site before that they should try to see if Montero could play RF. I think that would be very wise of the yankees for him to see if he can do that.

    • Brian Cashman publicly stated he won’t be using Montero in RF this year, as they don’t see him as having adequate range to play the position. That makes sense, as, although we’d like to see him become more versatile, you don’t want to put someone out there who can’t really play the position well.

      • I should have been more clear in my comment. I meant to give him a shot at in Spring training see if he could do it in a meaningless game. Obviously don’t have him go out their in a new position for the first time in a meaningful game.

        but thanks for the cashman thoughts for clearing that up.

      • Is it me….who is Freddy Garciato? ….the NY Post says the Yankees just “re-signed” him for 4 million plus! Never heard of him. Anyone know?

        • I think they are replying to Freddy Garcia.

        • I meant to say “referring” to Freddy Garcia. My fingers aren’t working to good this today. Sorry about that

        • God I need my coffee. Let me start over. I think they are referring to Freddy Garcia.

          Let me know if I’ve totally confused you. Sorry.

          • ufy1950……I think your third try was the charm. Today’s paper has it as Garciato, but you have it correct. They joined the two words together, put it in bold type, and had me saying….huh?…. Enjoy your coffee. Thanks.

  12. This one, ends my week. We all know that Brian can’t pull the trigger on the Darvish posting, without Hal, and Hank S. From what I saw of George Steinbrenner, and how he operated…..at this point in time, that Yankee posting fee would already of been in MLB’s offices. With a major press conference scheduled within 30 days. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but that was how George operated. I liked him.

  13. Here is a question. After the bidding window has closed will Cashman or the Yankees even say they put in a bid or will we the fans have to wait until at the very least a week from this coming Monday to even know that?

  14. Well, time will tell if Yu Darvish is worth the investment Texas will make in him. Jon Daniels , Nolan Ryan & company have done a great job with that team so I find it interesting they let CJ Wilson walk and went big after Darvish. That’s got to tell you they are very high on him.

    I said before the bids, i would have bid $55M if I were the Yanks. Obviously, that would have been enough to win the bid. I hope they have another plan and they don’t regret not making an agressive bid. Will be interesting to find out how much the Yanks did bid if it comes out.

    • I read a report from Andrew Marchand of ESPN that it was below 20 million from the Yankees.

    • fishjam, don’t you think that large of a bid and the potential asking and signing price of Darvish to a MLB contract can create a conflict within some of the Texas players.

      Let’s consider, Holland who the Rangers want to extend. He saved their ass during the World Series be it just for 1 game but never the less he did save their ass. But how do you look at it when they offer him an extension for may be 5 years at $30 or $35MM. Or your Colby Lewis who they signed from Japan for 3 years (2010/2012) for $8MM total. And he comes up for renewal after the 2012 season. You have to think if your both these guy’s I got screwed or in the case of Holland are they are going to screw me. At least that’s how I would look at it.

      Let’s not forget Josh Hamilton is looking for an extension also. His contract expires the end of the 2012 season.

      All three of these players have MLB experience and have contributed to the Rangers success over the past 2 years. It’s an interesting predicament the Rangers may find themselves in, in the not to distant future.

      • The bid means nothing to the player.I’d think Darvish will get about 5 or 6 years for about $10-12M per year. I don’t think any players will begrudge him the money. Any player in baseball has the right to make as much as he can and whatever the market will bear for him.

        Aj Burnett pitches to a 5.00+ ERA but makes $16.5M per year while Ivan Nova took over the #2 role AJ was suppossed to play. Nova led the team to the playoffs and won a playoff game. I don’t think he was pissed off that he was making $400,000 while AJ made 40 times that. it’s part of the game.

        • I’m not sure about that. The bid tells me what they think the player is worth. It should tell or at least indicate to Holland, Lewis and Hamilton that they think Darvish is worth $120MM when you add the potential contract to the bid. Darvish doesn’t realize the whole $120MM but it sure says that’s what the Rangers think he’s worth.

          And to me a contract offer to Holland of say $30MM or an offer to Lewis and Hamilton in the next 12 months of X should tell them what the Rangers think they are worth.

          Your analogy to AJ and Nova isn’t the same. The Yankees aren’t trying to extend Nova. Like the Ranges want to do with Holland and have to do with Hamilton and Lewis in the next 12 months. Both Hamilton and Lewis will be FA’s in 12 months. Not a fair comparison, my friend.

          • I’m not sure the bid is what the player is worth as to more of you wanting it to be a above of what you think the next team thinks he is worth.

            • really though I would think each team has their own theory on why they bid in these situations.

              I would also think that theory with each team could change from time to time.

              So i disagree with the theory of teams bidding what they think they player is worth.

              • I hope you don’t mind if I disagree at least in this particular case. For the Rangers to effectively commit to about $120MM +/- between the posting fee and the estimate of what it will take to sign Davish they have to think he’s worth that much. Other wise why would they bid that much.

                If he’s not worth it then being prudent business men you bid a lower amount still hope you are the highest bid and then offer him a contract that still fits within what you perceive his value to be.

                With Darvish especially by most accounts the prevailing thoughts were the winning bid would be at least between $40 and $50MM and possibly more. So based on that the Rangers had to come to the conclusion that for them to win the bid and to have a chance to sign him to a contract they had to bid at least that if not more. Now, the contract portion again it’s been well publicized if Darvish was posted he was looking at a contract bigger than Dice K’s.that being the case the Rangers knew that would have to be in the range of about $60MM +/-. All of those facts can’t help but make me believe and come to the conclusion at least in Darvish’s case the Rangers believe he is “worth” at least $110M plus.

                That’s just the way I feel.

                • I see your point and say that’s fair. But I wouldn’t assume all teams would feel that way. Say it was the Yankees people would say ahh they have the money to throw around that’s why they bid 60mil (if they did) people wouldn’t be saying the yankees thought he was worth that.

                  see my point?

                  I just think some teams have different value and beliefs with the bidding stuff and don’t all follow the same reasoning.

                • Matt, yes I do. I think we both make very valid points..

          • UFY – Seems like we are always disagreeing, however I do respect your opinions and enjoy the debate.

            I just think that every player in baseball has the right to earn as much as he can and it’s all about timing, leverage and what the market will bear.

            A guy like Harrison has absolutely no leverage. He’s a great young pitcher but he’s 4 years away from hitting Free Agency. If Texas wants to offer him $30M+ to buy out his arbitration years and possibly a year of FA, I’m sure he’s gonna be estatic. It would be a smart move by Texas and I wish the Yanks would do it more. TB signs their young guys quite often and it saves them a lot of $$.

            When Hamilton becomes a FA next yr, his agent won’t be bringing up Yu’s contract. He’ll be comparing Hamilton to the top hitters in the game and trying to get a Pujols or Fielder type-deal. It’s doubtful he’ll get as much because of his durability questions.

            Lewis can try to argue he deserves the same 5 or 6 yr deal for $10-12M as Darvish but he won’t get it because he’s 7 yrs older. If he has another good yr, he’ll make good money but he won’t get 5 or 6 yrs. I doubt Texas will even bring Colby back next yr. He had a much worse season this yr with a 4.40 ERA and MLB-high 35 HRS allowed. He’s been great in the playoffs but I don’t think Texas will give him the 4 yr deal he’ll likely command for a 33 yr old.

            I just think the Japanese posting system is a totally unique situation and can’t be compared to any other contract negotiation in baseball. It’s comparing apples and oranges. You almost have to equate the posting fee to what it costs to acquire someones rights via trade. Like the Yanks gave up Kennedy, A.Jackson & Coke for Granderson. What would that package be worth in a dollar amount? It cost the Yankees those players to get Grandy but it has nothing to do with what Granderson earns or can command when his contract is up.

            • …and there for a minute I thought you were going to comment about my most recent post on Wandy Rodriguez.

              My friend, I too enjoy our discussions we are all entitled to ours opinions. And it’s interesting to see how we justify them. Just for the record. I didn’t say or mean to imply (if that’s the way you took my comment) that any of the players I mentioned expected to get anything close to what the Rangers are expected to lay out in TOTAL for Darvish, What I was trying to say or get across was that all 3 players and their agents will think to themselves if the Rangers can afford approximately $120MM +/- for an untested player from Japan with absolutely no MLB experience, I deserve X. Whether or not they can convince the Rangers of that is another story. And if they can’t in my opinion it will leave a sour taste in their mouths.

              I don’t disagree with you that one piece of what Hamilton/agent will look at when they sit down with the Rangers about an extension is comparable salaries for like players. But again in my opinion they will also look at their own contributions to the team and the teams ability to as I like to say “belly up to the bar”. And again in my opinion with these players that all works in their favor and against the Rangers because of what the Rangers decided to do with Darvish.

              One final comment and may be it’s just me. Hopefully you will forgive me. but I think you are fooling yourself if you think what a team decides to pay one player and especially a player with no resume or MLB experience doesn’t effect the thinking of another player. I offer as an example although not an exact comparison the Jeter negotiations last year. Make absolutely no mistake 2 contracts stuck in the craw of Jeter’s throat. A-Rods 10 year deal which A-Rod signed after a fantastic year and at a younger age. Which none of those things applied to Jeter at the end of 2010. Also why do you think Jeter wanted more then a 3 or 4 year deal it’s because A-Rods contract with the Yankees took him to 42 and Jeter wanted to be paid to the same age. And also there is/was AJ Burnett’s AAV of $16.5MM salary. No way was Jeter going to let the Yankees get away with paying him less on a per year bases lthen they were paying AJ. That’s exactly why with the $3MM buyout Jeter’s 3 year contract came to an AAV of $17MM. If Jeter was only basing his negotiations with the Yankees on like players he would have signed a deal for about 2 yrs and about $8MM per. Because to be fair and to be honest that’s about all a soon to be 37 year old (at the time) SS coming off a terrible year both offensively and with reduced range defensively should have been paid. Now please don’t misunderstand my I like Jeter, I am merely trying to say what I think may go through the minds of the 3 players I mentioned in my earlier post (Holland, Lewis and Hamilton). When it comes time to talk dollars and cents with the Rangers.

  15. UFY – Ouch, so you say I’m fooling myself. A little harsh don’t you think?

    In any event, whether a player’s thinking is effected by what another player is earning or not, it is irrelevant to negotiations. Negotiations are based on market value & leverage. I think you are incorrect in assuming Jeter’s contract was driven based on Aj Burnett’s performance and contract. By that logic, since AJ is under-performing on his contract and is effectively one of the worst players on the team, every Yankee who’s contract expires, has the right to make more than AJ. Simply not true. Freddy Garcia was MUCH better than AJ last year and they are the same age…..so why did Freddy just re-sign as a Free Agent for $4 Million? Why couldn’t he ask for and get $16.5M if he’s better than AJ and the same age?

    Jeter got more than his marketvalue because he is an icon. You can’t equate his status to anyone in baseball. He brings value to the team beyond his on-field numbers and it’s in both his and the team’s best interests to have him remain with and retire as a lifetime Yankee. ARod’s contract may have gone into Jeter’s thinking but one stupid contract doesn’t mean Cashman is going to offer the same to other players.

    • I apologize if it sounded harsh. I didn’t mean for it to be.

      My friend, I think we are just going to have to accept that we disagree on this subject. And no amount of back and forth will in my opinion change either of or minds.

      Although I don’t agree with you I respect your opinion and you sharing it. I hope you feel the same way about mine.

      Again my apologies for the harshness of the comment earlier (you’re fooling yourself) it was not intentional.

      • Apology accepted. Its no biggie. I respect your opinion and enjoy the back and forth. We’ll agree to disagree and move on.

        On another note, I was just considering what if the Yankees plan is to trade Montero? I don’t think it is unless a major #1 pitcher was available but it could set off a chain reaction something like this if they decided to move Montero:

        1) trade Montero, Betances or Noesi & change for Gio Gonzalez or Matt Garza
        2) sign Carlos Beltran to DH or sign Carlos Pena & Andruw Jones to platoon
        3) eat $20M and trade AJ Burnett for anything ($13M savings)
        4) Use the AJ savings to sign Oswalt or Kuroda to a 1-yr deal

        Rotation

        CC
        Garza or Gio
        Oswalt or Kuroda
        Nova
        Garcia

        Lineup

        Jeter
        Granderson
        Cano
        ARod
        Tex
        Beltran or (Pena/Jones)
        Swisher
        Martin
        Gardner

        I wouldn’t do it because I don’t want to move Montero. I think he can turn into an elite bat so he shouldn’t be traded unless its for an elite starter. However, it would make for an excellent team in 2012. What do you think?

        • Thank you my friend.

          Do you think that and offer of:

          Montero, Betances or Noesi and say another “good” prospect would be enough to pry Cain away from the Giants. I would love to see Cain in Yankees pinstripes.

          I like Gio and Garcia but I don’t think either of them comes close to Cain. I just wonder if the Yankees can do better than Gio or Garcia for a package that includes Montero, Betances and a couple of other prospects.or perhaps including Nunez in as part of the package.

          • That would be a very attractive package. But I think SF would still probably say no since Montero wouldn’t be able to DH and his other positions aren’t open. They have Posey at Catcher & #1 prospect Brandon Belt at 1B. I suppose they could get a 3rd team involved or trade Belt. However, SF keeps saying they want to sign Cain long-term.

        • BTW, something tells me at some point the Mariners are going to get tired of losing and decide that a well rounded team capable of competing and winning on somewhat of a regular basis is better then what they’ve been doing. At that point hopefully they decide to trade “King” Felix.

          • Yeah, I think they eventually will if things don’t turn around for them. Felix has been cheap up until now but this year he goes up to $19M and he’ll be a Free Agent after 2014. I would think if SEA is still going nowhere, they will put him on the market by next yr this time.

            • King Felix over any other pitcher in my opinion. Would love to see him pitching for the Yankees.

              Kinda have to be rooting against Seattle this year that they tank and are almost forced to trade him to get better.

              I like your scenario of the lineup Fish but I would like them to keep Montero.

            • I hope if the Mariners do decide to trade King Felix at say the trade deadline of the 2012 the Yankees have saved a bunch of the top prospects. Because it’s going to take a Kings ransom. I know that’s pretty cheesy.

              I also have to think as it stands today with the list of prospective “quality” pitchers scheduled to hit FA for the 2013 if Seattle wants to maximize it’s take they should do it at the trade deadline.

              Matt, I echo your sentiments about Seattle tanking this upcoming year. I think that’s the best way to get them to seriously consider trading Felix.

              Just one additional personal observation about the Mariners and King Felix. Two years ago the idea that the Mariners would consider trading King Felix would have been met and in fact was met with laughter. Today the chorus of people thinking that a trade is inevitable has grown and they are no longer being laughed at.

              One final comment, just so I don’t forget. I know there are still a few days before the holidays but I want to wish everyone a very Happy and Safe Holiday Season. And please NEVER drink and drive.

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