Swisher over Granderson?

 Swisher and Granderson - New York Yankees v Toronto Blue Jays

If you would have asked this question last year you would have looked silly, but now you can have a serious debate on whether it would be a better value to sign Nick Swisher long term than Curtis Granderson. Obviously, there are still a lot of factors that are unknown at this point that will weigh into the decision, but this was a debate that nobody saw coming. It has long been assumed that for the Yankees to get to the $189 million plateau in 2014 that they would have to part ways with Swisher in order to sign Robinson Cano and Granderson. However, with the season Granderson is having Swisher might actually be the better value on the free agent market this year than Granderson will be in the winter of 2013.

How well Granderson and Swisher perform between now and the time their contracts are up is still a big factor in how much they will be worth. This season’s postseason will be big for Swisher because if he flops again it will be even more unlikely the Yankees would not bring him back. But let’s say he has a successful postseason and for the Yankees to bring him back it would cost them $12 million over the next four seasons. The Yankees would be better off to sign him at that price than Granderson at closer to $20 million per season, which he may cost if he hits close to 40 HR’s three years in a row at a premium position.

Swisher’s .811 OPS has now surpassed Granderson’s .807 mark for this season. Swisher is also batting almost 30 points higher than Granderson, and only has two less RBI in 74 less plate appearances than Granderson.  Granderson has hit just .202, with 7 HR’s, 20 RBI and a .677 OPS since the All-Star break. Whether it is just a prolonged slump and he will snap out of it is unknown, but it has been a pretty big sample size. It is well known that Granderson has swung and missed at a lot of pitches, but he has also fouled off a bunch of hittable pitches. On the other hand, Swisher has gotten hot and it looks like he will put up another year of hitting around .260, with 25 HR’s, and 85 RBI. He has been incredibly consistent over his four years with the Yankees and if he can finally perform in the postseason he can make a convincing case to stay. The Yankees are only 7-7 this year when Swisher has not been in the lineup. Maybe that is just a coincidence, but the lineup seems a lot shorter without him in it.  He also provides great lineup versatility for Joe Girardi as he can hit at the top of the lineup or towards the bottom. I also get the sense that his presence around the clubhouse is a big positive for the team as well.

An ideal scenario for the Yankees outfield would be for the Yankees to trade for Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton, trade Granderson to get some of the prospects back, and sign Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Bourn to replace Granderson. That would be a pretty cost efficient outfield, but it would be hard to put together. Maybe they can work out a three team trade like the Yankees did to acquire Granderson to begin with. If the Yankees don’t re sign Swisher I still think Bourn could be a nice option and they can move Granderson to right field. Bourn would be a good leadoff hitter for the Yankees and they can really add a lot of speed to the lineup with him. Bourn has stolen at least 50 bases over the last three seasons and also his OPS+ is only four points lower than Granderson’s this season. Bourn’s problem is he strikes out a lot, as he has 115 strikeouts this season and 140 last season. However, despite those strikeouts he has still managed to hit .291 this season and .303 last season, which cancels out a lot of the strikeouts. It is also worrisome to give a speed guy a big contract when he is going to be 30 years old next year. However, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down, and they won’t be giving him a Carl Crawford esque deal. If they could keep his deal to a four year deal they should be fine. Another great scenario is to trade for Upton, trade Granderson and re-sign Swisher. The Yankees could then move Upton to left, put Brett Gardner in center field and still have Swisher in right field.

This is something to keep your eye on for the rest of the season. If Swisher can continue his hot hitting into the postseason and Granderson continues to struggle the Yankees may have a different outfield in the future than anybody might have figured. They will have some very interesting decisions regarding their future outfield.

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About Matthew B

I am a student at William Paterson University and studying to become a sportswriter. I have a huge passion for the Yankees and love sharing my opinions on them. I can analyze every aspect of the Yankees very well. I am very active on Twitter so feel free to contact me there Twitter: @RAYROBERT9

Posted on August 17, 2012, in Personal Opinion, Player Analysis and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. 92 Comments.

  1. We need to bridge until 2015. A lot of the young talent will be ready.Tyler Austin will be able to handle right field. And if Mason Williams can return 100% those two will be together for a long time

  2. Mariano would be the bigger question for 2013 I think. He , I believe , was going to retire, now he wants to come back. What was MO making this year, about 12 million? How much will he want for 2013, as he is not signed yet.
    Why cant Granderson and Swisher each take a little less maybe 14-15 million each a year, to stay on the GREAT YANKEES?
    TEIXEIRA IS SIGNED FOR 4 MORE SEASONS AT 22.5 MILLION PER SEASON.
    Looking up and down the rooster , the salaries, the Yankees have been eliminating payroll,.. that is to say, thay have a ton of low pay players right now,….. including Jobba, that are going to want bigger money eventually.
    Not for nothing, but the biggest problem is Arods contract at 30 million a year,… 22-30 million per, the next 5 seasons.
    It wouldnt just be a matter of eliminating swisher’s or granderson’s free agent contract,.. but inserting a good low pay player. At the same time, you got to get another Starter to replace Andy most likely, and Andy is only making what like 2-3 million if that?
    Arods contract is the monkey wrench is this whole thing.

    • Getting under the luxury cap for just one season is the end-game. It resets the tax rate and after that the Yankees are intent on just letting it go back over the threshold (and being reset every 3-4 years).

      This move alone would free up 20+ million per year that they currently “just toss into the sharing pool”. 20+ million that can be used on player talent, the scouting & development part of the organization and so on.

      Arod’s deal (that the Steinbrenner family negotiated, not Cashman btw) is at the very least one that declines as it moves along. Could be worse and be a heavily back-loaded deal like the one Pujols got.

      The underlying assumption has been that both Mo’s deal & Soriano’s deals would be huge savings points. They both expire after 2013 and Cashman has said he has zero plans to pay that much for one closer…let alone two. That alone more than likely saves 20 million per year in annual salary.

      Jeter’s deal will be off the books (with a new contract being negotiated if he intends to play) as well.

      There is no reason to suspect that merely for the sake of getting under the cap & resetting the tax rate the Yankees couldn’t set lower salaries for the 2014 part of any/all new deals….then just bump up the annual rate of each deal in subsequent years.

      It’s tricky. It’s takes some creative management. But it can be done.

      • I havnt seen anything that Mariano is signed for 2013, … where are yiou getting that? Bsseball reference.com is showing he will start to get defered money in 2013, at the rate of 1 million a year, til he is paid off. Nothing about having a players contract for 2013. Is everything top secret”?
        Just the fact that the YANKEES had to defer multi millions of Marianos salary, without intrest, make me think the COMPANY is not turning a profit. All the money they take in, is going out to run the vast gigantic company,. revolving debt payments, including the Stadium construction debt,…. as well as just regular lines of credit.
        They employ a lot of people. Benefits, salary,. and expenses.

        • If he comes back next year, as he plans on dong, he will need to be paid. That was the only point reference his salary demands/needs.

        • as far as Arods contracxt goes 2013-2017 his salary would bem, according to baseball reference.com, 28,25,21,20,20, million,,,, and any one of those years could go up to 30 million when he reaches 660 homers, and then 763 homers, if he gets there.

          You are right, George Steinbreener, not being fully of sound mind and body, made the AROD contract.

          I think AROD would have taken less,.. they were already in the middle of hard ball negotiations with him before george interviened and arod fired his agent.

          GEORGE WAS PROBABLY THINKING OF THE TIME HE LET REGGIE WALK, AND WAS SIMPLY NOT PREPARED TO LET AROD WALK. AND AROD DID WIN A MVP UNDER THIS CURRENT CONTRACT, SO IT IS NOT ALL BAD.

          • Jim, it was Hank who handled the ARod contract and its not a coincidence that he was basically banished from the team after that. Now we have Hal who is budget conscious. Perhaps a bit too much so.

      • Great point about the tax resetting and the fact that the Yankees only have to be under $189 million for 1 year and not forever. I don’t know how many people realize that.

      • Mr. djpostl……….what, may I ask, does the dj stand for?

      • Dj…you make some good points. It’s never been stated what the Yankee ownership plans for beyond 2014 payroll-wise. I’ve always assumed the intent was to get under for 2014 only to reset the Luxury Tax, but they have not been clear on that.

        The fact that ARod’s deal is front-loaded is no help for the Luxury tax unfortunately. And the Yanks can’t set lower salaries in 2014 on new deals because Luxury Tax is computed on the Annual Average Value of a contract. So ARod’s 10 yr $275M deal counts $27.5M all 10 years despite the fact that the yanks will only pay him $25M in 2014. Another bad aspect of ARod’s deal is if he hits any of those HR milestones, he gets $6M in incentives and that counts against the Luxury Tax in the yr it is earned. He needs 16 more HRs for the first milestone (660) and 70 for the next (714) so luckily there’s a good chance he won’t hit any in 2014.

        MLB tries to close all loopholes and fight against purposeful circumvention of the Luxury Tax but there are some ways. I believe the Jeter contract and the wording of the 2014 option is a way to creatively lower tax in 2014. However, the bylaws aren’t known to most of us.

  3. At this point I don’t view Granderson as anything more than a Mark Reynolds type & would hope that the Yankees don’t pay him as anything more. 200 K’s, 35-40 HRs, a metric ton of unproductive outs isn’t worth a long-term, costly deal.

    Swisher is a good producer & one hell of a clubhouse guy, but once again, only if the price is right.

    If he is looking for a deal that is either too long or too pricey I wouldn’t even keep him. Every year there are Cody Ross, Josh Willingham types who are just as good a producer & willing to take a more favorable deal.

  4. If instead of making 30 million a year, if AROD was making 10 million a year,…. that is 20 million slashed right there. AROD has no reason to re-negotiate with the Yankees, from a business standpoint,.. as he already did that once on the money the Rangers owed him. It is going to be very difficult to just eliminate payroll at this point. They need another top Starting pitcher. Mariano is gonna want at least 10 million, and he is worth it too. Andru Jones is only making 1 million, Ibanez is only making 2 million, Chavez is only making 900,000,…..makes no sense to eliminate those contracts,……. The Yankees are stuck between a rock and a hard place right now,.. probably for the next 5 years……. treading the thin line with a 200 million a year player payroll.

    • They aren’t trying to get (and stay) under the cap. just get under to reset the rate they get taxed.

      Then it becomes something they need to do every 3-4 years to prevent it from escalating any further.

      It can be done, even with Arod’s deal on the books (though that makes it trickier).

      Mo’s deal has no impact because I do not see him pitching beyond 2013. The recent deals to closers not named Papelbon put 10M per year at the rate for elite level ones, which means you just saved around 18M in 2014 with no Mo & only one Soriano type signed.

      Cano deserves a big deal. Granderson & Swisher deserve a reasonable one, but not one in the 15M range you threw out. Granderson would if the HRs came with less K’s & a higher average, but sadly he is regressing in the wrong direction on those fronts.

      Through yesterday’s games Granderson has had 292 runners on base for him to drive in. He has 68 RBIs – 30 that are him via the long ball for a grand total of 38 guys knocked in out of 292. That ain’t getting it done.

      If he wants a big money, big player deal like the one Hamilton will get or Miguel Cabrera currently has then he needs to hit like them. Those guys have over 100 RBIs each, 70ish of which are not them in the same number of chances.

      Ross has produced the same as Swish at a cost of 3M per year & Willingham has done what Granderson has done for 7M per year.

      Don’t offer them deals at those rates, but also don’t feel the need to offer up 5 yr/75M deals. Meet somewhere in the middle.

      If their contract demands are unreasonable, let them walk. It isn’t like either has a history of producing at a big clip in the playoffs anyways (Swisher = .169 4 HR in 38 games & Grandy = .266 6 HR in 27 games).

      • It is easier said then done to replace the production of these guys at the minimal cost of Ross and Willingham. Although, that has been a strength of Cashman recently. I never said $15 mil for Swish. Something like 4/48 would be reasonable IMO if he can finally put together a good postseason.

      • You might want to add the other big names for your rbi stat to strengthen your argument
        Tex-55 rbis in 338 AB
        Swish- 51/286
        Cano- 43/338
        Granderson- 38/292

        Also I think we are hitting Granderson when he has been slumping (4-36 .111/.171/.222 6 rbis last 11, 2 which he did not start) and at the top of Swisher’s game (14-43 .326/.396/.558 and 12 rbis in last 10 games)

        Obviously Granderson has slumped, and perhaps all he needs is a little talk with Long but it was this time two years ago that he became a beast so I am not counting him out. A lot of season left to either make a run or walk away.

        Honestly I think we will need to look at the season as a whole, compare stats, age and willingness to sign a contract.

  5. nice stat. a lot of that is because granderson was batting in the 2 hole a lot,……when I think he should have been at 4 , 5 or 6, throughout the season. Yeah, Jeter gets on, especially in the first inning with a hit,….. but the back of the lineup is either homering to clear the bases in the 7 hole, or outs, and Russel Martin is not getting enough base hits, and with no Gardner getting on in front of Jeter, from the 9 hole, this season went to crap offensivley.
    Ichiro is making is a bit better right now.

  6. AROD WOULD NEED TO AVERAGE 24 HOMERS A YEAR FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS TO GET TO 763 HE HAD 21 HOMERS LAST SEASON, 14 THIS SEASON , AND IS DL’D RIGHT NOW. AROD would have to hit the batting cages all winter, refriain from drinking alcohol,… and train like a guy worth 30 million a year,…….. and hope his swing gets back to where it once was,….. even with all the determination and focus in the world,.. the swing still may not come back,…. in which case,…. it is too much money, when that money could be going into another top starting pitcher.

  7. It really is an interesting debate. Swisher has been so consistent for the Yankees over the years and though he really can’t hit the side of a barn in October, he is one of the better offensive outfielders (in the regular season) in the Majors.

    Granderson on the other hand has really become a Mark Reynolds-type player, as dj pointed out. He is a better hitter than Reynolds, as he does get his share of doubles, but other than that it’s a strikeout or a home run. And I didn’t buy into the “Granderson is a bad defensive center fielder” but after looking at his stats he cost the Yankees 15-20 runs last year. That’s insane.

    Swisher holds his own in right field and consistently hits .260 with 20+ homers and 80+ RBI. That’s awesome production out of a right fielder, and forget the postseason, because there are many players who should have gotten the boot (*cough* A-ROD) after poor postseasons.

    If the Yankees want to get this $189 million thing done, than let Granderson walk or trade him, and keep Swisher in right.

    Justin Upton is my choice for CF as well, but who knows. Melky maybe on a one-year deal to prove himself again?

  8. lol, let granderson walk,…… maybe, the METS I think regretted letting DAVE KINGMAN WALK, they actually got him back at one point. Yeah though, at 235 avg, 30 homers,….. he is basicly KINGMAN. , BUT BETTER DEFENSIVLEY. . Granderson just needs to hit the batting cages in the off season,….. and work at his swing,…….. that is all,.. I would not let granderson go,….. I think he can rebound average wise,……..

  9. here are kingmans homers/rbi/runs per season starting in 1972: 29/83/65, 24/55/54, 18/55/41, 36/88/65, 37/86/70, 26/78/47, 28/79/65, 48/115/97, 18/57/31, 22/59/40, 37/99/80, 13/29/25, 35/118/68, 30/91/66, 35/94/70- 15 consecutive seasons of stats- his carrer average was 236

    granderson homers/rbis/runs per season starting in 2006 are :: 19/68/90, 23/74/122, 22/66/112, 30/71/91, 24/67/76, 41/119/135/ 30/68/79 ( in 2012 so far) — granderson scores more runs than kingman because he has batted in the 2 hole or 1 hole a lot in his carrer,…. grandersons lifetime average is 264

    kingman was also a right handed batter– kingman had way way more power than granderson has– there can be no doubt about it.

    granderson should be trying to drive the ball,.. take the ocassional homer, like bernie williams did

  10. I guess people like me will still go back to Kingman, as a foc al point in time, to compare players. Like I said though, pitching is a lot better in todays game,.. so I guess you got to factor that in. But the reverse factor is Kingmnan was righty, Granderson is leftey.
    It is not meant to be a slap in the face to Granderson,…… I would keep Granderson,….. he is one hell of a player, he is better than Kingman was,…….. only he has to get his average up.

  11. i would have thought someone by now would be bashing me for comparing granderson to kingman,,,,,, lol,…. but if grANDERSON WANTS TO PLAY AT 30 HOMERS AND A 235 AVERAGE, I believe it is a fair comparison, lol.. Youtube used to have the kingman homer when he was on the cubs,, the famous 23-19 game against the phillies, where kingm,an i think had 4 homers,,.. and ONE OF THOSE HOMERS , WAS OUTOF THE STADIUM,,, SO FAR OUT,, IT LANDED ON A FLY ACROSS THE STREET ON A HOUSE PRCH 3 HOUSES DOWN,, ALL CAUGHT ON FILM.

    BUT THAT WASNT KINGMANS LONGEST HOMER AT WRIGLY,.. SO THEY SAY,, HE HIT ONE EVEN FATHER IN 1976,….. ALMOST 600 FEET,.. THAT AFTER THE BOUNCE AND ROLL, IT WOUND UP LIKE 5 BLOCKS Away, .lol.// bob murphy or lindsey nelsomn was oput there the next day ona remote, showing where the ball wound up.

    granderson has delusuions of grandjer if he thinks he has kingm an type power.

  12. you guys are all yankees fans,…. reading this,.. is it not true , other the babe ruth, the only plasyter to hit a ball out of yankee stadium was dave kingman,.. albiet, kingmans ball out of the stadium was a foul ball,… that is still tremendous power. doesanyone on here remember that?

  13. TWASP loved Dave Kingman ….best HR hitter….incredible power……much better than Aroid who needed steroids. Hit one out of stadium….yes.

  14. Mickey Mantle almost hit one out…..but he was hyped up on about 20 greenies.

    • And Kingman wasn’t?
      More hitters than kingman hit foul balls out of Yankee Stadium, Mickey, Frank Howard, Also Jim Gentill (I think) and a few (very few) others.
      Actually, if you were to look it up…A-Rod was the over all better hitter, BA, number of Hrs along with his Hr Ratio…if I remember right

  15. Kingman was a mormon , who didn’t drink or take drugs.

  16. Yanks have tough choices to make to get under $189m starting this Winter. I hate to judge a player by post-season performance since its only a small snapshot of ABs but if Swisher fails for a 4th straight yr in the playoffs its a trend. He has hit .160 with 5 RBI in 114 PAs so far so he needs a good showing.

    The fans and his teammates love Swish and he has been good relative to his salary. But he’s been in a slow decline so signing him up for his 32-35 yr old seasons at roughly $12M per isn’t ideal IMO.The Yanks paid him $31m for his 4 prime yrs (ages 28-31). It would now be a mistake to pay him around $48m for his 32-35 seasons when he is already showing signs of decline. Cash needs to go find the next Swisher to bring more youth to the team. I’d ofer a big qualifying offer of aound $14-15m to see if he’ll stay for 1 yr but if he insists on a big 4-yr deal, I let him walk.

    I want to avoid 4yr+ deals to anyone who isn’t in their prime yrs or an absolute stud. If Cash can’t find a suitable OF on the trade market, I’d be OK with a 1-yr platoon like they did in LF this yr with 2 veterans (Ibanez/Jones). I really thought Melky would be a more viable target and now he might be an even better target if the testosterone test means he can be had on the cheap on a 2-yr deal.

    And there’s still time for Granderson to improve but if he plays like this in 2013 there’s no way I’d bring him back either.

    • If Grandy can get his OBP back up to .360 and avg 35-40 hrs …….I like him. 100 + runs scored and 100+ rbis would be doable again then…. Like speed/power……don’t mind the Ks if he gets the other numbers.

      • I agree. Grandy has become totally 1-dimensional. His Singles, Doubles, triples, SBs, Walks, Runs & RBIs have all been dropping the last 2 months. He’s actually having a season almost as bad as 2009 and 2010. Hopefully he’ll turn it around and finish strong but I’m worried about giving him a huge long-term deal into his mid 30′s based on his track record. In his 7-yr career he’s had 3 great yrs (OPS+ 135, 124 & 141) and 3 subpar yrs (98, 102 & 108). This yr could go either way but its been tranding downward (113).

        The Yanks have a lot of promising OFs in their system who could be ready in 2014 and beyond.

        • Yeah…Grandy is too inconsistent to give a huge long term deal…..as Reggie says ‘if you’re going to lay out the cash, you gotta be sure he can mash “.

    • I don’t really see the decline in Swisher you are referring to Fish. He is on pace for his normal numbers pretty much.

      • Swish’s has been red-hot the last week to bring up his #s but his OPS has declined the last 3 seasons:

        2010 – .870
        2011 – .822
        2012 – .810

        His OBP this yr is the lowest since 2008

    • Fish if you don’t want either of them or Bourn who are you replacing them with? It is a lot of production to replace between the two of them. You can give me prospects all you want but it is still hard to rely on them when they’re unproven.

  17. Home run ratio per AB

    Kingman. 15.11 (without greenies)

    Mantle. 15.12 (with greenies)

  18. I’m not real interested in Bourn for similar reasons why I though Carl Crawford wasn’t worth the money. Bourn’s worth is strongly tied to his speed and is probably looking at a 4-yr deal for his 30-33 yr old seasons at similar money as Swisher.

    The Yanks have an almost identical player in Brett Gardner for a lot cheaper. If I had to choose between Bourn and Swisher on a 4 yr deal……I’d probably take Swish but I think there are better choices based on the budget constraints.

    • Im still not sold on Gardner as a hitter honestly. Still just a .265 career average.

      • Career #s for Gardner & Bourn:

        Gardner 265/.355/.368/.723
        M.Bourn .275/.339/.370/.709

        They are basically the same player except Bourn will get $40-50m guaranteed while Gardner has 2 more yrs of arbitration.

        • With Gardner it’s all about working the count, seeing a lot of pitches, his OBP (.355), which is good and should get even higher as he matures,. Agree with The Big Fish… No need for Bourn.

  19. LOL CURTIS ‘ KINGMAN’ GRANDERSON HOMERED GAME SET MATCH

  20. I wouldn’t mind seeing Zoilo Almonte given a look in a platoon with a Right Handed hitter next yr. Maybe someone like Hairston from the Mets, Gomes from Oakland, Francoeur or anyone who clubs LHP. Andruw Jones could be used too if they can’t find an upgrade.

    Almonte looked impressive in ST but was hurt and got of to a slow start in AA. But he’s been on fire the last 41 games. Since July 1st, he’s hit .315 with 14 HRs and a .655 SLG%. He’s a switch hitter but is much better hitting LH. On the season he’s hit .316 with 16 HRs and a .940 OPS vs RHP.

    Then you have Slade, Mason Williams and Tyler Austin coming up behind him. I really like Austin and if he hits in AA he could be ready by 2014.

    • fishjam…
      With young players like Zoilo, Slade on the way and not that far away why would we go after any player in their 30s? Unless of course they are top of the line?
      The talk has been, Swisher gone after this year and Granderson next year unless they can trade him and have someone to replace him with. Next year the outfield could be Brett-LF, Granderson-CF and Itchy-RF, with Zoilo. Or maybe: Zoilo-LF, Brett-CF and Itchy-RF…just putting out Zoilo for example!
      Fans may find a very light hitting out field like that a no, no…Zoilo would be the power guy, as a rookie, do we want that?
      Would the defence of those guys along with base running off-set the power lost? If I were a pitcher I wouldn’t want any of them on base at all, to much of a disruption with my attention, pitch selection and mechanics…speed kills but, power can destroy, if power follows a speedy runner!
      I think we have a very good bunch of Out-fielders coming up but no big power guys, is that something we should worry about? Do you think the projections of power from a couple of them is enough? :)

      • The Yanks don’t have any can’t miss prospects in the minors at this point. They are not going with someone from the minors. The question is who replaces Swisher? Gardner and Grandy are set unless the Yanks can get creative. I would only put Zoilo in the outfield if I could get Hamilton, and trade Grandy. Gardner could move to CF. Otherwise the Yanks just look to replace Swisher which will be hard to do. I like Hamilton, Bourn, or even Tori Hunter short term as upgrades. The Yanks could get creative, sign Hamilton and give him 30 next year and 20 in 2014, then give him 25 for 4 years. Then they could let Swisher and Grandy go. I think Cashman will just take it one year at a time unless he can make a good long term deal. Hunter might be their best option if he is available.

  21. Ken – no way the Yankees are going to switch their offense from a power team to a speed/defense team. SPEED KILLS, BUT POWER DESTROYS ™. With Iichy and Gardner you would replace swisher/grandy’s 65 hrs with only 10 hrs. A loss of 55 HRs ……ain’t gonna happen. Especially since you may not get much in avg/speed from Iichy anymore at 39.

    Now , excluding Iichy and platooning in some prospect with power might work.

    Will Jones and/or Ibanez be back?

  22. I agree twasp no way it will be Gardner and Ichiro as the corners next year. 0 power at the corner OF spots is just not going to happen. You can say we got young guys coming up but as we have seen in the past prospects are prospects for a reason and you have no idea what will happen with them. I don’t really count on them to contribute on the MLB level until I see it with my own eyes.

  23. Yeah Matt B. ….how many outfielders have we seen come up, play for awhile and then disappear. Yankees are too win now conscious to give anyone a legitimate look anyway even if they were good.

  24. If Girardi had been batting Grandy where he should have been (instead of the Albatross) his run production (rbis) would have been higher.

    Like you said Mike B. …..the Albatross was a top of the order singles hitter the first half of the season.

    • twasp, I would like to see the Yanks go out an sign Mike Bourn in the off season, that would give the Yanks a younger outfielder who can bat lead off.

      • Doug – what would your OF be?

        • twasp, my first outfield for next year would be Hamilton LF, Gardner CF, and Tori Hunter RF. My second choice would be Gardner, Grandy, and Hunter. My third choice would be Gardner, Bourn, and Hunter. I think the Yanks will stick with Gardner, Grandy, and Hunter, if he is available. If the Yanks go stop gap for next year you have Choo, Ellsbury, and Morse available in 2014.

          • Doug….you make some good points. Hunter might be an answer if he’ll accept a 1-yr deal. I think you are right in that 2014 would be the time to sign a Free Agent OF and the choices are better. This yr, Hamilton is the only franchise player available and if they decide to go that route it would be surprising and def signal the end for Granderson. I don’t see them going big on any FAs this year. They will likely sign Cano this season to a mega-extension and sign a stop-gap for the OF. If Melky is available on the cheap, he’s possible and I’d like to see it.

            Next year, every starter on the team will be over 30 years old except for 29-yr old Gardner. This team must begin to blend in some youth not only to remain relevant for the future but to control costs with the budget being dropped. There’s no reason why they can’t go with Zoilo and a moderately priced veteran ($2-4m) in a platoon in RF (Francoeur, Hairston, Gomes, A.Jones types). There is always the trade deadline if the young player doesn’t work out.

      • I agree Doug. Then trade for Upton and trade Grandy to recoup the prospects. That’s my fantasy plan lol

  25. TWASP SHOCKING STATISTIC

    CAREER OPS +

    Jeter 117+

    Swisherlicious. 117+

  26. Not to shocking twasp Jeter doesn’t walk much or hit for power so OPS isn’t his best stat

  27. Matt B…..not too stocking for you….because you are a statistical guru…..but for many others on this site like Ken, the Ghost, Kevin, and Matt S it may be interesting…

  28. I hope the Yankees don’t go stop gap with Gardner bourn Hunter……that outfield is good defensively but run production wise it stinks.

    I would love Gardner Hamilton Grandy next year….if George was around we’d get it.

    • twasp, agreed that would be a great outfield, major upgrade. I’m just not sure of Hamilton in NY. I would really like to see Cashman pull another Swisher out of his hat.

    • I agree twasp. If George was around, hamilton would be a yank. But he’s not….budget-conscious Hal is! Everyone has made good suggestions and it isn’t sext to say go with a young player or platoon, but the reality is this team is looking to cut payroll and a lot of tough decisions will have to be made to do it. Cano is in line for a massive raise there is the catching position to worry about and of course pitching.

      • In a King Geo. world, we would have Hamilton to play LF with Brett in CF and Itchy/Zoilo/Melky for RF.
        Most may wish for the 2nd coming of King Geo but, not me. It’s easy to remember his very good deals but, what about all those that were really bad? What about trading away all his best minor league players?
        I lived through those bad bad years. Life is way to short to do that again.
        Geo. was the best thing to happen with the Yankees, CBS was killing the team but, these are different times, days and different rules. I have no doubt, Geo. would have found a way to adapt for to-days rules.
        Next year OF; LF-Milky, CF-Brett, RF-Zoilo/Itchy…Grandy traded away, Swisher walk away.

        • You are correct Ken…..George made many, many ridiculous decisions. Now we have his son who is the opposite and will look to cut the Yankees payroll for the first time in decades. The 2014 goals is to get to $179 Million (including the 10 for benefite, pension, etc). That’s a large cut. the yanks haven’t had a payroll under $194M (for Luxury Tax figures) since 2003.

          Considering the money already allocatted to ARod (27.5), Tex (22.5), CC (24.5), Jeter (9) and Cano’s upcoming mega-deal (22.5?) you are talking roughly $106 M already spent. That leaves about $73M to fill out the 20 other players plus the 15 guys on the 40-man. You also have to consider guys like Gardner, Robertson, Nova, Joba, Pineda, etc due sizable raises in arbitration. So for those thinking young players won’t have to contribute, I ask you how?

        • old yankee,twasp, fishjam, did you see where Victor Conte came out and said that using PEDs today is likd taking candy from a baby, only the dumb and dumber get caught. He said a player could put a testosterone patch on at night and nothing would show up on a test the next day. That isn’t even HGH which they don’t test for now as far as I know.

          • It is intrusting to hear they can get away with using HGH and PEDs. This tells me one thing, a very important thing, the so-called perfect players could be using and no one would know it.
            Maybe it is time to quit using drugs as an excuse for players with ok talent not matching up well with those that have the talent. I am not sure but, the drugs have nothing at all to do with giving one more power (you can educate me if I’m wrong, drugs and I are not on speaking terms).
            Basicly, you are saying someone like Granderson (example only) could be using and no one would know it?

            Rant time:
            In that case, why not just have everyone not
            guilty of drugs and let it go at that? Anyone that has a career way above the norm should not be said to use drugs, who is to say others aren’t using also but, they didn’t have the talent to begin with.
            Therefore, everyone is NOT GUILTY, because they can’t be tested for it?
            Personally, I think anyone taking a drug of any kind should be in line with the PEDs label, and band for life! But, as HGH was not banned until lately, why can someone using it be guilty of any wrong doing…if they quit when told.
            Just a rant of mine…drugs are unacceptable in life, let alone sports!

  29. 2014 – Gardner Hamilton Cabrera……… Let Grandy and Swisher walk……

    • That would be a great OF but maybe too pricey. That would be about $6m, $25m, $9m. Probably too much since it would leave only $33M to fill out an entire pitching staff (besides CC), starting C, starting 3B or DH and the bench. In 2014, I think David Adams might be up to play some 3B. Another question is what about Nunez? If Jeter plays SS til at least 2014, we should probably trade Nunez for a young OF or SP.

      • fishjam, how about Cashman getting creative and giving them more money next year and less in 2014, and then more in the years after that.

        • Doug…Unfortunately that’s not an option in MLB. It’s allowed in the NFL for the Salary Cap but not in Baseball. The Competitive Balance Tax aka Luxury Tax is based on the AAV – Annual Average Value of a contract so it counts the same amount every year. ARod’s 10 yr $275m deal counts $27.5m against the Tax all 10 years even though some years he takes home $20m and other years he’ll take home $30m.

  30. My God Ken…that’s a big downgrade offensive OF for next season. Melky Brett and Iitchy……never gonna happen. Whose gonna make up the 6o HR production in 2013?

  31. Last time I checked, HRs don’t count any more than a single…HRs can drive in more at a time but, everyone has been crying about hitting WRISP right? What is easier to hit, a HR or Single with men on base?
    Hell until Zoilo plays in the Majors, we will never know what he will produce, do we? There have been many players hit about .275 in AA, AAA and come up and hit .300+ never looking back.
    Would this be good enough for the Yankees?
    Will it happen, I doubt it?
    Could it happen? Yes!

  32. Ha ha …last time you checked Hrs don’t count more than singles????

    Let me print this comment of yours out and frame it.

  33. Fish – why $33m left ? What numberbare you using as the ceiling?

    • Twasp…..I’m using $179m as the ceiling since roughly $10M is counted against the Luxury Tax for player benefits & pensions. They already have $83.5M on the books in 2014 for 4 players….ARod, CC, Tex & Jeter…and if you add in Cano’s inevitable deal (roughly 22.5m that’s $106m on 5 players.

  34. Doug – I heard Conte ….he’s the BALCO guy who knows whats going on. You were right Doug , they all cheat ( except Jeter and maybe 10% others ). Either greenies or steroids. Only the morons get caught like Braun, Ortiz,Manny, Melky, Arod….

  35. Doug – do you know why Mickey wore #7 ?

  36. Ken – your statement “drugs have nothing to do with giving one more power” say whaaaaat?

    Read this :

    print
    Study: Steroids Can Power Home Runs

    Tufts physicist Roger Tobin found that increased muscle mass that can be generated by steroid use could help batters knock 50 percent more baseballs out of the park.

    Medford/Somerville, Mass. [09.24.07] With Major League Baseball cracking down on performance-enhancing drugs and several high profile ball players being implicated in their use, the possible impact of steroids has been a popular topic of conversation among sports fans. According to research by Tufts’ Roger Tobin, the muscle mass that one could reasonably acquire with steroid use can lead to a player hitting substantially more home runs.
    In a paper to be published in an upcoming issue of the American Journal of Physics, Tobin reports that a 10 percent increase in muscle mass could help batters who are already exceptional sluggers hit 50 percent more home runs. Earlier studies indicate that such an increase in muscle can be achieved through steroid use.

    In the 1990s, home run totals skyrocketed to historic levels, notably dropping off after steroid testing was instituted in 2003. Tobin, a baseball fan whose usual area of study is condensed matter physics, pursued this research out of curiosity about whether steroid usage could truly improve a player’s performance that substantially.

    “If you look at other sports, you don’t see radical changes in performance,” he told Reuters. “No one is running a 6-second 100-meter dash, no matter what they are taking.”

    Tobin’s research was covered widely in the media, including The Boston Globe, United Press International and EE Times.

    The 10 percent increase in muscle mass helps a batter swing five percent faster, increasing the speed of the ball leaving the bat by four percent. This extra speed, applied to a model distribution of trajectories, could result in 50 percent more home runs, Tobin found.

    For pitchers, the results are good but less sensational: pitch speed can increase by approximately five percent, or four to five miles per hour, for a pitcher who throws a 90-mile-per-hour fastball, dropping his earned run average by a half-run per game, Reuters reported.

    “That is enough to have a meaningful effect on the success of a pitcher, but it is not nearly as dramatic as the effects on home run production,” Tobin said. “The unusual sensitivity of home run production to bat speed results in much more dramatic effects, and focuses attention disproportionately on the hitters.”

    Tobin cautions, however, that the increased muscle mass could also be obtained through legitimate means such as weightlifting, and that other factors such as changes to ballpark dimensions and league dynamics could also account for an increase in homers. He notes, however, that none of those factors are timed to the home run explosion of the 1990s.

    “This doesn’t prove anything,” he told Reuters. “This is not an indictment of Barry Bonds or anybody else.”

    All his research does, says Tobin, is show that the idea that steroids can substantially enhance home run production is consistent with known physiology and physics..

    • twasp…
      Maybe you missed this line: Toban said…

      “This doesn’t prove anything,” he told Reuters. “This is not an indictment of Barry Bonds or anybody else.”

      Also, I did say; correct me, I don’t know anything about drugs.

      • Ken – it’s well known that steroids build muscle mass and make you stronger and that was the major cause of the increase in HRs in that era.

        TWASP has played sports …baseball. Football, basketball under the influence of the following drugs:

        Black beauties
        Qualudes
        Greenies
        Anabolic steroids
        Cocain
        Weed

        Some helped my performance some hindered my performance. I hit the ball much further when I was lifting weights and taking steroids. and when I was lifting weights and taking steroids and I popped a few black beaties I would knock the cover off the ball.

  37. Ken – HGH was banned by Major League Baseball in 2005. Steroids testing and discipline resulting from positive results started in 2004. In 2005, the list of banned substances was broadened, and penalties were made harsher.

    There was no test for HGH until fairly recently and the first time players were tested for it was last Spring. In season testing will start next year.

  38. Willie Mays drank red juice amphetamine cocktails. Mickey Mantle popped greenies like Tic Tacs. Amphetamines enhance performance when you are tired as they increase reaction time to hit a ball.

    So Willie and Mickey and Arod have all used PEDs. Jeter has not and that is why Jeter and fat Babe Ruth Are all time greatest Yanks.

  39. Most of MLB has not stopped looking for the edge….were talking about careers….millions of dollars. When testing began they just found ways to beat the tests. Here are 20 ways they beat them :

    20 Methods of Cheating (in alphabetical order):
    1. Biosimilars 11. Micro-dosing (a, b)
    2. Blood transfusion (a, b) 12. Perma Cleanse
    3. Catheterization 13. Probenecid
    4. The Cream 14. Protease (a, b)
    5. Diuretics 15. Tattoos
    6. Epitestosterone 16. Testosterone patches
    7. Erythropoietin (EPO) (a, b, c, d, e) 17. Therapeutic use exemptions
    8. Gene doping 18. Titrate testosterone/epitestosterone
    9. Human growth hormone (HGH) 19. Urine replacement (a, b)
    10. Masking agents 20. Call Yuri

    • twasp…
      Thanks for all the information about drugs.
      Maybe I am prejudice but, drugs kill people one way or another and I have seen some that were killed as a direct result of drugs. None after 1965, at lest, not among my people.

  40. Ken – you are smart for not doing drugs.

    As Nancy Reagan said SAY NO TO DRUGS.

    IN THE LONG RUN THEY DO MORE HARM THAN GOOD.

    Canseco is broke.

    Bogaard committed suicide

    Arods testicles shriveled up

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