ARod suspension is the key to offseason Reload

Brian McCann is the type of player the yanks could look to sign if ARod is suspended in 2014

Brian McCann is the type of player the yanks could look to sign if ARod is suspended in 2014

In 2012 the Boston RedSox were a last place team with a mountain of problems and a slew of bad contracts on their ledger that left them with few options to improve the talent of the team.   Miraculously, the Los Angeles Dodgers foolishly took 3 of the worst bad contracts off Boston’s hands and sent some talented young players back.  In one fell swoop, the Red Sox cleared over $250 Million which changed the entire outlook of the organization and allowed them to go out and sign 8-9 Free Agents and later trade for 2 high-priced pitchers who have led the team to the best record in the American Lg this yr after losing 90+ games a year ago.

This year’s Yankees team has a lot of parallels to the 2012 Red Sox – namely an old roster that is short on talent and a payroll with several bad long-term commitments that limit the club’s ability to improve moving forward.  Unfortunately, there is no delusional team that is going to come along and trade the Yankees a group of talented young players in exchange for the contracts of ARod, Teixeira and CC. However, the impending PED suspension that is about to be levied on ARod could have a similar effect on the Yankees future and their ability to spend money and bring in much-needed fresh talent.

Best case scenario would be a lifetime ban that would net the Yankees around $100 Million in contract savings and even more in potential Luxury Tax savings.  But I believe a lifetime ban is unlikely, however a suspension for this season and the 2014 is a very real possibility and would be enough to help the franchise in a big way. They would save nearly $34 Million in salary but more important is WHEN that savings would take place.  A suspension for all of 2014 would allow the Yankees to reach their stated goal of getting under the $189M Luxury Tax threshold and still leave enough for them to add a handful of sizable contracts to the team similar to how Boston quickly rebuilt their lineup.  ARod’s suspension would result in a $27.5 Million savings against the Tax in 2014 which could allow the team to sign 2 players in the $12-15 Million range.

Some quick math shows the team has roughly $140 Million in commitments next year when you add in salaries for the 40-man roster and benefit payments.  However remove ARod’s $27.5M AAV and the team has roughly $76.5 Million under the Tax to spend.  That doesn’t include re-signing Robinson Cano so if you allocate $22-25M per yr on him you are still left with some $51-55M to spend on the following 6 key positions: C, 3B, OF, SP, SP, RP.  Looking at what is available at those slots, here are some of the potential Free Agent options for the team to use that $ on:

C – Brian McCann, AJ Pierzynski, Jarrod Saltamalachia, Carlos Ruiz

3B – Michael Young, Eric Chavez, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, Johnny Peralta

OF/DH – Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Beltran, Nelson Cruz, Jacoby Ellsbury, Granderson, Corey Hart, Mike Morse, Nate McLouth, Hunter Pence, DH – Kendry Morales, Mike Napoli, Morneau, Konerko

2 SPs – Kuroda, Aroyyo, Garza, Feldman, Hammel, Hudson, Maholm, Lincecum, Nolasco, Vargas, Volquez

CL/RP – Balfour, Rodney, Gregg, Uehera, Mujica, Benoit

Offseason Plan

First priority is to re-sign Cano and for the sake of this exercise, I’m assuming it happens.  After that, the net most important move is to re-sign Kuroda.  He has not only overtaken CC as the team’s best pitcher, he has become one of MLB’s best starters andwith CC having his worst season ever, the team can’t afford to lose Kuroda.  If he comes back for $15-16M the Yanks will be estatic because there aren’t many pitchers on the market near his level.  Someone like Matt Garza could be an option but would require a massive 4-5 year commitment. Yanks  have to hope Hiro wants to return. If he does, he and CC will lead a rotation that would have Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, Adam Warren and Vidal Nuno fighting for spots.  They would likely need to bring in another mid-priced veteran on a 1-yr deal like Scott Feldman, Jason Vargas or Tim Hudson to play the Andy Pettite role, assuming Andy elects to retire.

In the bullpen, they’ll have a massive hole left by Mariano.  They could promote Robertson to the closer role but would then need to fill his tremendous the inning performance.  It may be easier for the Yanks to sign a closer among the Rodney, Balfour, Gregg, Mujica class. They have enough in the system to fill the rest of the pen with the possible exception of a lefty specilist.  Boone Logan is a FA and may or may not be brought back….I’d say let him walk.

Then the attention turns to the lineup with C, 3B and  1 OF or DH spot open depending what is gettable.  Brian McCann is a perfect target for the Yankees.  An excellent leader and left-handed hitting Catcher who will still have  lot left turning 30 next February. McCann will command $13-14M per yr for about 4 yrs.  Saltalamachia is a poor-man’s version of McCann who is still improving at 28 but is not great defensively which the Yankee brass won’t like. If they miss on McCann a 1-yr deal for veteran Pierzynski or Ruiz would make sense to pair with and mentor JR Murphy or Romine.

In the OF, Ellsbury or Choo would be the top options as players still in their prime who hit LH and would be good fits at Yankee Stadium.  They’d command deals similar to what Swisher received last yr, at minimum a 4-yr deal at $13M plus.   Bringing back Granderson is also an option although I think the Yanks will only make the 1-yr qualifying offer of about $13-14M to ensure they receive a 1st round pick if he walks and Curtis will refuse to seek a multi-yr deal elsewhere.  They already have Gardner in CF, Ichiro in one corner and Soriano at DH or the other corner.  Wells will be the 4th OF.  Carlos Beltran would be a great fit as a switch-hitter who could split time between DH and LF with Soriano to keep both players fresh.  They could also go with a 1B who could be the everyday DH and also provide insurance in case Tex doesn’t fully return from his wrist surgery.  Kendry Morales, Morneau or Napoli could fill that role.  Morales would be one of my top choices if they don’t sign a big OF like Choo, Ellsbury or Beltran.  I think Morales will get better with another year of health and I love that he is a switch-hitter.  He may also be reasonably priced for the production he’d supply although signing an everyday DH isn’t the best move considering Jeter, Soriano and possibly McCann would need time there.

The last big hole is at 3B and the pickings are very slim. Michael Young, Johnny Peralta and Eric Chavez are about all the FA market has to offer.  This is the position the team should be focusing its trade chips on. Chase Headley’s name is always mentioned and SD may finally look to pull the trigger though I’d like to see Cashman get creative and find a young 3B….easier said than done.  I’d also like to see David Adams get to play everyday this yr as soon as the Yanks are out of contention.  Most players struggle in their first taste of the Majors and I think Adams has some talent and was just getting comfortable when foolishly replaced with Luis Cruz.  I’d like to give him a long look to see what we have,

Hypothetically, if all went perfect the Yanks could sign McCann (14M), Choo (14M) & Kuroda (15M) and use the remaining $9-12 Million to bring in a #4-type starter, a 8th or 9th inning RP and a 3B.  Ideally they’d have another $5-10 Million to spend on those spots so they could get say Vargas, Rodney or Benoit and M.Young.  But the team tied up $14.5 Million by giving Ichiro 2 yrs (6.5), and trading for Wells (2.4) and Soriano (5.5).  What they are paying them would cover McCann or Choo although this would all be posible only if ARod is suspended for all of 2014.  His $27.5M savings would basically cover the cost of McCann and Choo alone. The hypothetical lineup below with a rotation of Kuroda, CC, Nova, Vargas, Pineda/Phelps would have the team in contention again and pump some hope and excitement back into the fanbase……..but it’s all contingent on MLB liting the albatross off their books in 2014……stay tuned.  How would you spend the potential $50-55M the Yanks may have?

CF – Gardner

SS- Jeter

2B – Cano

LF – Choo

1B – Teixeira

C – McCann

DH – Soriano

RF- Ichiro

3B – Nix/Adams/M.Young?

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About fishjam25

Was a 4-yr Pitcher and Communications Major at Seton Hall University in the 90s. His knowledge & opinion of the game comes from his background as a player and ardent lifetime Yankee fan. However, Fishjam also incorporates sabermetrics and statistical support to form a well-rounded view of the game.

Posted on August 2, 2013, in No Category. Bookmark the permalink. 19 Comments.

  1. fishjam25…..good morning.
    Very nice article. A lot of work went into that. Thanks.
    Agree all the way across the board. Maybe there is light at the end of this tunnel.
    Its funny, but Buck Showalter, being self serving….says the Yankees should not be allowed
    to use A-Rod’s demise to their financial advantage. He is thinking as we, and multitudes
    of Yankee fans are thinking.

    • Yeah Buck loves to bitch about the Yankees. He’s right that the Yanks are getting a huge break but they have done nothing wrong to get this break. If ARod was still a 50 HR guy the Yanks would lose out on the suspension. The timing works perfect for them.

  2. Very well done fishjam, sounds good to me!
    I have a question or two for you to ponder for me please!
    What about giving Zoilo and Mesa a chance instead of spending money for another OF? Remember, Brett will be 30 (or is), we will need someone such as Mesa (speed) or Zoilo (switch hitter) to replace him with. Also Itchy/Wells will be gone after next year
    Jeter can’t play full-time SS anymore and contract is up after 2014 (maybe), so I added Nunez as a safety net.
    CF – Gardner
    SS- Jeter/Nunez
    2B – Cano
    LF – Zoilo/Mesa
    1B – Teixeira
    C – McCann
    DH – Soriano
    RF- Ichiro
    3B – Adams/M.Young?
    Could use a little (or big) critique from you, thank you!

    • Thanks Ken and I also like Zoilo. Mesa has a role in the Majors too but more as a 5th OF type. I think he has too many holes as a hitter to be a starter. If the Yanks didn’t have Wells or decide to drop him I’d be very comfortable giving Zoilo a chance. I think the lineup needs to add 2 big bats. If they could sign McCann to catch and trade for Headley to play 3rd, I’d let Zoilo play LF.

  3. fishjam, your are right on the money, I wrote something similar yesterday. Cano and Kuroday are a must after that I go after Beltran and McCann. I would also go after Garza. Add a Young or Morse and the Yanks are back in contention. I like our young pitchers I would go with Robertson, Kelly, Clairbourne, Phelps, Nuno, Monty, and Whitley. I agree, the signing of Ichiro, Wells, and Kelly were wrong, but at least they are trying to win this year, and they aren’t making a lot of money.

    • I like the young bullpen arms also. Though I’d feel comfortable adding a closer or 8th inning guy as those could be difficult roles to full with youth. Either way the Yanks should have $ to work with and have some flexibility in what they do.

  4. Excellent work Fish I agree with mostly everything. Would be a tough choice for me between Morales and Choo because I think Morales would be a perfect fit for this team next year

    • Will be interesting to see how much Morales will command in FA. Will he be viewed as an everyday 1B and middle of the order bat and get a big 4-yr deal? Or has the injury rendered him as just a DH who can play 1B 30-40 times a year and is still fragile? If that is the case I’d think the Yanks would be a good fit for him on a 2-yr deal. Not a lot of teams will pay big money for a DH but the Yanks can and need the offense bad enough to do it. He’d be a great fit and I think he’s very underrated as a hitter. To put up the #s he has at Safeco is impressive and the Yanks could use a productive switch-hitter in the middle of the lineup.

      • Matt and fishjam, Choo really isn’t a good defensive player, while Morales is mostly a DH. I would go after either one of them along with Morse. I would sign the one they can get for a good 3 yr. deal. I like Beltran better than all of them because he is proven in the post season.

        • Doug, I know Choo doesn’t havd a good UZR but I think he is fine defensively. He’s a natural RF who Cincy is using as their everyday CF so I think that tells you a little about his athleticism. He’s got good speed and a strong arm so he would do fine playing RF since the Yanks wouldn’t need him in Center. Choo has a higher OBP than everyone in MLB with the exception of Joey Votto and Miquel Cabrera. The Yankees offense is at its best with guys who work pitchers, get on base at high rates and can hit for power, especially LH power.

          Morales is a really good hitter who was on his way to being one of the best in the game before his nasty injury. It seems like he’s just about regained his form now. Beltran would be great…Cashman should have signed him twice in his career but didn’t, maybe 3rd time’s a charm. Hate to sign another 37-yr-old OF but Carlos can clearly still hit though his knees are a concern. If the Yankees hadn’t already had a trio of old OFs, Beltran would be a slam dunk but adding a 4th gives me some trepidation.

          Doug – Outside of Garza, is there anyone you like in case Kuroda doesn’t return?

          • fishjam, Kuroda by far is the Yanks best option, after that I would look at Garza, De La Rosa, Feldman, Arroyo, Vargas, and Lincecum. The Yanks might even be able to trade for Samardzija. I like Choo in RF also, and I like Morse, he wouldn’t cost as much as some others and he is younger than most.

  5. fishjam, just a thought, if A-Rod is suspended do you try and resign Grandy?

  6. Allow me to say thank you. To someone.

    The Yankees?…Finish with a winning record? Qualify for post season? No.
    With this line up, incapable of scoring more than two runs per, and now the rotation…white flags?
    The depth has been exposed, and there are too many short comings to make you think
    they can turn this around. They should of been sellers.

  7. So, here goes. I hate to quell the positivity, but McCann is not what he may appear. He has had eye issues his entire career and is not known for his defensive prowess. Eye issues only get worse with time. Also, the yanks have decent catching options in their organization. They always sign the veteran on the downhill side of their career and trade away the young talent that ends up blossoming for another team. With young pitchers you need a solid backstop defensively. I have been impressed with Romine and Murphy’s development and would sign a cheaper veteran on a one year deal to mentor them. I like Ellsbury better than Choo in the outfield, but do worry about the injury history. Ichiro is not a viable outfield option. His low on base and lack of productivity do nothing for the yanks and he should not be considered a regular. That is hard for me to say because the guy has had one heck of a career, but facts are facts.

    When all is said and done the Yanks have handicapped themselves with bad contracts and no good trading chips so they are going to have to save their money (other than signing Cano and an outfielder), try to develop from within. That way when July rolls around if they are still in it they may have some better trade options.

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