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Mo’s a perfect 13 for 13 in Save Chances this year

With the lack of big moves in the off-season and the mountain of injured players the Yankees have endured, not many expected them to get off to a good start.  Well not only has it been a good start, the Yanks are now in 1st Place in the AL East with a 20-13 record, just a half-game behind Texas for best record in the American League.  Every year there is a surprise team that defies the numbers and conventional wisdom by winning games.  Last year it was the Baltimore Orioles who won 93 games and a Wild Card spot in the playoffs despite a bunch of peripheral statistics that said they should have been about a .500 team.  So far in the early going there are a lot of parallels to the 2012 Os and the 2013 Yanks.

Baltimore only had a 712-705 run differential which according to the respected Pythagorean W-L stat developed by Bill James should have equaled a 82-80 record.  But the O’s were able to defy the odds thanks to an incredible 29-9 record in 1-run games and an unheard of 16-2 mark in extra inning games.  While there was a tremendous amount of luck involved in the Orioles success last year, they also have to be commended for finding ways to win all of those close games.  Baltimore was middle of the pack in most categories but the one area that excelled for them was their bullpen.  Their pen led the AL with 55 saves and was 3rd with a 3.00 ERA.

This year’s Yankees have a 139-128 Run differential which would equal a 18-15 Pythagorean W-L record so their 20-13 record is not such an anomaly.  But, the manner in which they have been winning is what is similar to Buck’s 2012 team.  The Yanks are a MLB-best 6-1 in 1-run games and 12-4 in games decided by 2 runs or less.  None of their team stats jump out as a possible reason why they have been able to win so many close games.  Their bullpen ERA is 10th in the AL at 3.82 but the back-end of their pen, namely David Robertson and the great Mariano Rivera have been superb.  Robertson has done his job in 13 of 14 appearances while Mo is a perfect 13 of 13 in Save opportunities and the team is 15-0 when the Sandman makes an appearance.

While Mariano is a huge part of the close wins, it is truly a team effort.  The team offense has been mediocre, averaging just 4.2 runs per game (10th in AL) but they have been scratching out runs when they need them in a variety of ways.  This is a huge difference from previous seasons when the Yanks have perennially been in the top 1 or 2 teams in scoring.  With all of the injuries and the anemic lineup vs LHP (.217/.287/.340/.627), the team has relied on strong pitching (5th in AL 3.68 ERA) and some timely runs.  They haven’t exactly come through a lot with runners in scoring position or anything but they have done the little things well to get just what they need to win….moving runners, stealing bases, capitalizing on their opponent’s errors, beating out an infield single to score a winning run, etc.

One thing the Yankees have done incredibly well this year is winning games when they have the lead.  Once they get ahead, they stay ahead. They have lost only one game all year that they have led in.  They are 11-0 when leading after the 3rd  inning and 15-0 when leading after the 6th.  That is a testament to their excellent pitching, especially the back-end of the pen.  While the perfect record isn’t sustainable, having a strong back-end of the pen is so the Yankees will continue to win when they are ahead as long as DRob and Mo remain healthy.  Joba and Logan and most recently Preston Claiborne have all pitched well out of the pen.

But can the Yankees remain in 1st Place without starting to score more runs? It’s doubtful.  While Baltimore showed a team can win 93 games and make the playoffs without scoring much more than your opponent, it certainly isn’t likely to repeat itself.  The Yankees need to find ways to score more to continue winning.  Some help is on the way with the soon return of Eduardo Nunez and Curtis Granderson but  the rest of the injured starters are a long ways off.  The Yanks will need to try to improve their offense against LHP either through minor-lg callups (David Adams, Ronnier Mustelier) or via trades.  I don’t think any trades are likely at this point unless they get some bad news on the injury rehab front.  Youkilis, Teixeira, Jeter, ARod and even Cervelli are all strong RH bats who have clobbered LHP in recent yrs so getting any or all of those players back from injury will be better than any trade they can make.

The starting pitching has been good and right now all of the starters are pitching well with the exception of Andy Pettitte who has had back to back poor starts.  I expect Andy to get it together and the rotation to continue to give this team opportunities to win. While the offense is clearly not as good as in past years, there is a certain level of satisfaction to see the team winning these types of games.  They just took 2 of 3 in Colorado despite scoring just 6 runs in the entire series and their last 7 games have all been decided by 2  runs or less.  Getting Grandy and Nunez back and calling up one or both of Adams & Musty would infuse some much-needed offense into the team. Getting Hafner’s bat back into the lineup with the DH is also a big plus. I see no reason to believe the Yankees can’t remain in  striking distance of 1st place until the All-Star Break when they should begin to get most of their bats back.

Can the Yanks keep winning all of these 1 and 2-run games or is it a fluke? Do they need to make a trade to improve the offense or can they hold out until injuries heal? Give your opinion in the comments.

Cano’s 2012 Spray Chart from Texasleaguers.com

I was surprised to see Boston with the massive overshift on Robinson Cano Opening Day.  Robby has always been a hitter who used the entire field – a true foul line to foul line hitter.  Yet Boston was playing their 3B in shallow RF in the hole between the 1B and 2B and their SS also on the right side of 2B.  I had to check Cano’s spray chart (above) to see what it is that Boston scouts are seeing.

While the chart does show someone who uses the whole field, it’s clear Cano hits a lot of groundballs to the right side.  His pull tendencies aren’t nearly as pronounced as a Mark Teixeira or Jason Giambi – as Cano clearly hits the ball on the ground to the left side also.  Yet John Farrell becomes the first manager to use the shift versus Cano and last night, it was effective as it robbed Cano of at least 1 and maybe 2 base hits.  It also got Cano thinking as he squared to bunt in his 1st AB.  So will other teams now start to copy what Farrell has started?

We have seen the shift take a huge chunk out of Teixeira’s Batting Average as it robs him of hits and also seems to get into his head a bit.  Will the shift have a similar effect on Cano if other team’s begin to use it against him? Perhaps that is part of Boston’s strategy as maybe it’s enough to just have Cano thinking about it.  Is Cano too diverse of a hitter to let the shift beat him as he serves hits through the vacant left side?  This will definitely be something to keep an eye on all season long.

A healthy Brett Gardner hitting leadoff all season could be a big lift for this team

It’s been a rough Spring Training for the NY Yankees and coming on the heels of an unspectacular off-season has many fans very pessimistic about 2013.  In fact, some could argue that since the WS win in 2009, Yankee management have made a series of bad decisions that have the organization set up for its worst stretch since the early 90s.  The end of the line for “the Core”, the lack of young talent on the MLB roster and the upper minors combined with the decision to significantly cut payroll in coming years makes for a rough outlook for 2013 and beyond.  There are many things to be concerned with but for today, let’s put on our optimistic hats and look at some positives for the 2013 season.

1 – Robinson Cano – As bad as things get, you can always look forward to Robbie’s 4-5 ABs every game. He’s hands-down, the best 2B in MLB and one of the top 2-way players in all of baseball. Cano is a superstar and MVP-caliber talent who is a magician with the glove at 2B and is as durable as anyone in the sport. He’s looking to show the league that he is worthy of the monster contract he’s asking for so I’d expect a huge year. Last yr he struggled vs LHP and with RISP yet he still had a career year (.929 OPS) and he has shown he can hit well in both situations in the past so look for a bounce-back there.  The biggest question is can he remain patient and wait for his pitch when pitchers are sure to pitch around him given the team’s lack of dangerous bats around him. Last yr his Walk rate jumped from 6.1% with no one on base to a whopping 16.9% with RISP.  Expect that to rise even more but Cano has to accept those Walks rather than get himself out this yr for the team to succeed.

2 – A healthy Brett Gardner – Gardy missed nearly all of last year and the team became a plodding station to station offense without him.  Brett is healthy, in his prime at 29 and will be given a premium spot at the top of the order to start 2013. He is a valuable weapon who can see a ton of pitches, get on base a lot, steal bases and generally annoy the heck out of opposing pitchers. If he can avoid the freak injuries I see a big year for Gardner with a .350-.360 OBP, 50 SBs, 100 Runs Scored and dozens saved in CF/LF as a Gold Glove defender.

3 – An opportunity for Eduardo Nunez – Jeter’s injured ankle has opened a door for Nunez to start as the team’s everyday SS.  While he has been an adventure defensively, he played his best defense in 2011 when he played Short on a daily basis when Jete was on the DL and he’s had the same chance this ST and it will extend into at least April.  I like Nunie’s offensive potential as a guy with a quick bat and blazing speed.  I see someone who could be a .280 hitter with 10 HRs and 35+ SBs if he played every day for a full year.  However, he must show he can be trusted at SS and if he does the yanks will be able to let Nunez and Jeter share SS and right-handed DH. They need his speed and RH bat in the lineup this year and beyond as the 25-yr-old is one of the team’s few young position players.

4 – A Strong Rotation – the Yankees rotation was solid last year finishing 5th in the AL with a 4.04 ERA, and 2nd in both IP & Ks.  It returns intact with a nice blend of 3 vets and 3 kids and it has the potential to be stronger in 2013.  Ace CC Sabathia dealt with injuries all season and had his elbow cleaned up in the off-season so I expect a typical great season from the big fella. Hiroki Kuroda was the team’s most consistent starter in his first A.L. season and Andy Pettitte is healthy after only making 12 starts a year ago. Phil Hughes improved as the season wore on last yr and will have a lot to prove in his Walk yr this season.  He’ll begin the yr on the DL with what is hopefully a minor back issue thus opening up a spot for David Phelps who was the team’s most pleasant surprise last yr and has looked great again this ST. Ivan Nova has made some mechanical changes working with Larry Rothschild as he looks to return to the form that saw him be the team’s #2 starter as a rookie in 2011.  Rothschild has had a positive impact on the staff as all of the starters have lowered their Walk totals while also raising their K rates since Larry took over. The Yankees will rely on their staff more than ever as they will score less runs and this staff has the horses to rise to the occasion.

5 – Walk Years – With the goal to get under the Luxury Tax Threshold in 2014, the front office has been very reluctant to lock players up past 2013 so the result is a ton of players reaching Free Agency in 2014.  While Cano is the big FA, the majority of the team will also be due including key players like Granderson, Youkilis, Hughes, Kuroda, Hafner, Joba, Aardsma, Logan, etc.  That’s a lot of key players who will have something to prove in 2013.

6 – A More Dynamic Approach? The yanks crushed a record 245 HRs in 2013 with 10 players hitting 14+ HRs.  This year’s lineup won’t come close to duplicating those power numbers.  However, they have players with other skills that could lead to a more diversified offense.  They’ve added some hitters with better contact skills and also have many hitters that can work a count.  In Gardner, Ichiro & Nunez, they have 3 players capable of  stealing 40+ bases each which is a big change for a team that was 22nd last yr with just 93 total SBs.  A HR is the best possible outcome in baseball but last year’s team struggled moving runners, hitting with RISP and cashing in runners on 3rd with less than 2 outs.  This year’s team will have to be better fundamentally because they don’t have the power to make up for their mistakes.

7 – Old Nemesis Kevin Youkilis was a hated opponent for years with Boston but will be counted on heavily this season as the likely cleanup hitter.  I think Youk will have a bounce back year and will be a very important cog batting behind Cano this year.  With Jeter down, the Yanks will also count on Youk for his leadership in the infield with the young Eduardo Nunez playing next to him.  Fellow old nemesis, Ichiro will also be counted on for a big season.  He saw a nice bounce in performance after coming to NY last yr and I hope he can maintain it for a full season in 2013. Ichiro will be counted on to not only set the table but also to help drive in runs this yr.  I think he’ll come close to his carer-high 15 HRs playing a full yr in YS.

8 – Underdog Status? For the last 15+ years, the Yanks have always started the season with huge expectations and a big target on their backs as preseason favorites.  This year, most “experts” and projection tools are not picking the Yankees to win the AL East.  Toronto is the popular choice with Tampa also often picked ahead of NY.  While ownership and the fans always expect the team to make the playoffs, perhaps the Yanks can use the doubts and picks to lose as motivation. Let Toronto deal with the lofty expectations while perhaps the Yanks can sneak up on people as underdogs.

9 – Minor League Development Yankee prospects received a lot of accolades this Winter with most publications rating the team’s system in the 11-14 range despite not having ANY top prospects above A-ball.  A strong yr could vault the system into the Top 5 in all of baseball. This year, most of the top prospects will either start the yr in AA or will be there by mid-season.  OFs Slade Heathcott, Tyler Austin & Ramon Flores will start in AA Trenton and could move up fast with some success. The team’s 2 top-rated prospects – Gary Sanchez & Mason Williams – are a step behind but could see call-ups to AA by June.  The prospects are more important than ever with the Yankees apparently sticking to a lower payroll in 2014.  if a prospect or 2 can take a starting job, it will leave more money to spend on other positions. It is without a doubt, a huge year for the Minor League system.

10 – Farewell to Mo…..the G.O.A.T. – Rafael Soriano did a tremendous job last year as the team’s closer after Mariano injured his knee but the greatest ever is back this year for one last season.  We should all treasure watching Mo pitch in 2013 because we will be witnessing the best reliever ever to pitch for the last time.  He has the best ERA+ of ALL-TIME with a 206+ mark. His standard ERA of 2.21 is 13th best ever but the ERA+ accounts for the era he pitched in, his ballpark and his relation to other pitchers of his time.  Not only is his 206+ ERA the best ever it is 52 points better than the #2 pitcher, Pedro Martinez at 154+.  Mo is 1st All-Time in Saves (608), 2nd all-Time in WHIP (0.98), 4th All-Time in so/BB rate (4.04), 5th All-Time in H/9 (6.9).  And his Post-season records are even more amazing – a 0.70 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 42 Saves and just 2 HRs allowed in 141 IP.  Savor this last season of Mo. There will NEVER be another player so dominant for so long while at the same time doing it with basically 1 pitch…..and always doing it with dignity & class.

According to the NY Post the Yankees are closing in on a trade for Angels OF Vernon Wells.  Wells is owed $21 Million per year for the next 2 seasons but the Angels are likely to eat a large portion of that.  Buster Olney just tweeted that the Yankees share of the contract ill be about $13 Million over the 2 years. Excuse me, but I just threw up in my mouth!

The Yankees lineup has been absolutely decimated with injuries as it was announced today that Derek Jeter will likely join Teixeira, Granderson & ARod on the Disabled List to start the season.  The lineup looks terrible with all of the injuries coupled with the lack of upgrades in the off-season. BUT, this trade for Wells looks like a desperation move that will just make it even harder to get under the $189 Million Tax threshold net year. Vernon hit a dismal .230/.279/.403/.682 last year which was right in line with the .218/.248/.412/.660 line he put up in 2011.  That is a .258 On Base Percentage over the last 2 seasons spanning 791 Plate Appearances!! .258!! Is there no one on the current roster who can get on base more than that?

When will this leadership team ever go with some youth or some new blood? If Wells was free and didn’t cost anything it would be worth a flier but for this production the Yanks are going to pay $13 Million?!? I don’t get it. Sure Wells will provide an occasional HR and he might be a tad better than the Francisco, Mustelier, Mesa group they currently have but if bringing in this guy blocks us from making other moves next season because of the $189M mandate then it will be a disgrace.

The Yankees get a welcome addition back to their lineup today in Robinson Cano.  Cano is by FAR the team’s best position player and the team will need him more than ever this season with the weak lineup and all of the injuries.  He’s coming off an incredible performance in the WBC where he was the leader of the Dominican team that dominated the tournament.  More than his performance, he was also the leader of the team which has Kevin Kernan of the NY Post thinking Cano can and will step into the leadership void on the Yankees with the old Core winding down.

While Cano has always been extremley talented, he’s often thought of as aloof and not a hard worker because of his smooth style and lack of running out all ground balls.  While it’s frustrating to me when Robbie dogs it to 1B on groundballs, I don’t buy for a second that he’s not a hard-worker.  He has turned himself from an average prospect into an incredible and complete player who is one of the best in the Majors.  His work ethic is praised and respected by his peers and many Dominicans have asked to join him in his daily off-season workouts with his father, Jose Cano in the Dominican Republic. 

Colin Cowherd said on the Radio yesterday that Cano was trying harder in the WBC than he ever has for the Yankees.  I don’t agree with that and think it’s more a matter of perception.  The DR team was playing with emotion and exuberance and clearly wanted to win more than most other teams in the “exhibition” tourney.  Their celebrations and style of play would be considered “bush” in MLB and by the old-school, corporate Yankees.  I’m not a fan of the WBC although I did enjoy watching some of the games.  You will never getplayers, especially American players, to go all-out in March before a 162-game MLB season – it just doesn’t make sense.  But if Cano gained some self-confidence and blossomed a bit as a leader, than that is the best thing that came out of the event.  With Mariano retiring, ARod hurt/banished? and Jeter possibly winding down, Robbie needs to step up both on the field and in the clubhouse.  He’s asking for a massive amount of money and for the Yankees to commit to him for the next 7-8 years, so showing himself to be the new leader of the team will make it easier to make that committment.

Cano is going to have a lot on his shoulders with no protection behind him in the lineup for at least the first month.  Last year, despite a career year, he hit just .268 with an .830 OPS with RISP.  But pitchers pitched around him with RISP last year as evidenced by his whopping 16.9% Walk Rate as oppossed to just 6.1% with no one on base.  And that was with Teixeira, ARod, Swisher & Granderson batting behind him.  This year, with Hafner & Youkilis being the only legitimate bats behind him, expect him to get even less to hit.  Cano needs to remain selective and drive in more runners for the Yankees to have success this year.  Ironically, Cano said that to his Dominican teammates in the WBC according to the Post article.

“Cano has grown up so much,’’ said Dominican Republic manager and Yankees bench coach Tony Pena. “Not only has he grown as a player, but he has grown as a person. He feels like he needs to step forward and he has done that. Tonight he said to our hitters,  ‘Guys, we’re swinging at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone. Let’s concentrate a little more; he will give us a pitch to hit.’  That means a lot and it worked tonight.  Little things like this will make him a good leader.’’

Hopefully Cano, can practice what he preaches because they need a monster season from their star 2B.

-  Raul Ibanez has signed with Seattle for $2.75 Million guaranteed and another $1.25 Million possible in performance bonuses.  Ibanez 2012 contract with the Yanks was only for $1.1M guaranteed but he got so much playing time he earned another $2.05 Million in “performance bonuses” for reaching 425 Plate Appearances.

The team had interest in bringing Ibanez back but are more focused on acquiring a RH hitting OF right now and rightfully so – pardon the pun.  With 3 LH hitting OFs who all struggle against LHP, the team will need to carry 1 and maybe 2 RH hitting OFs.  Scott Hairston is the leading name on the FA Market since he hit .286/.317/.550/.867 vs LHP last year with the Mets.  He’s holding out for a 2-yr deal and he may eventually get one considering the Red Sox gave a 2 yr deal to a similar player in Johnny Gomes.

- Noted Minor League and Prospect writer John Sickels posted his preliminary Top 20 Yankees Prospect List at minorleagueball.com  He ranks Gary Sanchez as the team’s #1 prospect followed by OFs Tyler Austin, Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott.  He said all 3 OFs have All-Star potential.  Check it out and discuss below.

Evan Longoria is locked up for the next decade for $136M

While salaries around baseball continue to rise, the Tampa Bay Rays have once again found a way to sign a significant player to a well below market deal.   They locked up 3B Evan Longoria for the next 10 seasons at a the bargain price of $136 Million.  While the amount of years and the total dollar amount of $136M seems high, when you consider he’d be worth close to double that amount on the open market, it’s easy to see the Rays made a great deal.

TB’s GM Andrew Friedman has been proactive in buying out arbitration and early Free Agent years of his young core players like Longoria, Matt Moore, James Shields, Ben Zobrist, etc.  Part of Friedman’s M.O. is to add extremely team-friendly, team-options to the end of these deals.  He did exactly that with Longoria shortly after making his MLB debut which is why the team had options on Longo for 2014($7.5m), 15 (11m) & 16 (11.5m). Without those options, he would have been a Free Agent after the 2014 season at the age of 29.  Looking at the recent deals given to Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto & Albert Pujols – all of them got between $20-24 Million per year for between 7-10 years.  Besides the fact that Longoria will only make an average of $13.6M over the next 10 yrs, he’s also only signed through his age 36 season with yet another team option for his age 37-season for just $8M.

Of course there is some risk since Longoria has missed significant time over the last 2 seasons.  But those were separate incidents and TB is such a better team when he’s on the field, the risk is worth it.  The contract is also so below-market, the Rays will have no trouble trading Longoria down the road if they so choose.

Tampa continues to sign their core players to reasonable deals by locking them up before they hit the open market.  They see the trend in the game with more and more teams signing lucrative TV deals and becoming bidders on Free Agents. The bottom line is, if you are a team with a star player, you’d better be prepared to pay through the nose if you let that player hit the open market. Unfortunately, the Yankees have not been smart with their star player and will either pay way too much for Robinson Cano next yr or watch him walk away for nothing in return.

The time to approach Cano about an extension was last season as I wrote about here.  In one of Cashman’s shrewdest moves as GM, he locked up Cano early in his career with 2 team options for 2012 and 13.  Had Cash offered Cano a Longoria-like 6 or 7 year extension at $20M+, the Yanks would have him locked up only to his age 35-36 seasons.  By waiting til he’s a FA, he’ll get more money, more years and will be locked up til he’s 38 or older either by the Yankees or someone else.