Blog Archives
Morning Bits: Girardi, Hughes, C.C. vs Shields and more…
Hope many of you are enjoying a nice day off from work as summer ends. The playoff push is getting interesting as the Yankee continue to struggle. An important next two series begins today with Tampa and after them will be at Baltimore. A-Rod should be back in the lineup today. Hopefully that helps the lineup.
Enjoy the day and now for some links. Enjoy!
– Mike Mazzeo of ESPN NY has the thoughts of Girardi which is “We need to play better baseball.”
– Matt Ehalt of ESPN NY writes that Girardi sticking with Hughes late backfired.
– Ethan Asofsky of mlb.com has the preview of today’s matchup between C.C. vs. Shields which starts at 1:10PM EST.
– Zach Schonburn of The New York Times writes that Yankees have the lead in the division but the O’s have the momentum.
– Andrew Burton of The Bleacher Report has seven reasons the Yankees shouldn’t re-sign Nick Swisher.
– Matt Tracy won his SWB debut yesterday as the SWB Yanks won 6-2. Read the recap of the game.
Evaluating the AL Cy Young Candidates
Tomorrow, the AL Cy Young Award will be announced. Justin Verlander is the clear favorite in everyone’s eyes, but let’s see how the overall perception of his candidacy matches up with a purely statistical evaluation of the candidates.
First, I created 8 different categories with 2-3 stats per category:
Each category was worth a certain percent out of the total 100. Command, stuff, and durability were valued the highest, which was 15% each. The outcome of all these categories was added up for each pitcher, giving each a score. Scores were given based on the percent above average, for each pitcher’s stat. The 5 main candidates are C.C. Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Josh Beckett, and James Shields. Here are their point values (percent above/below average) for each stat:
fh
b
c
d
e
f
g
As you can see above, those are the point values by stat. Below, are the averaged scores for each category:
Since this is a Yankee blog, we’ll trace Sabathia closely throughout the evaluation.
As far as command goes, Justin Verlander had the best. His K/BB and BB/9 numbers were simply outstanding, outshining the second-best, Jered Weaver by 1.6 points, which is a lot. Sabathia was right behind Weaver, but still slightly above the average of the five starting pitchers.
According to the statistics, C.C. Sabathia in fact had the best stuff this season. So any time analysts talk about Justin Verlander’s tremendous stuff, we know that statistically speaking, C.C. Sabathia had the better stuff. Although his K/9 wasn’t the greatest, he manufactured plenty of ground balls, which is also a sign of “stuff”. In addition, he surprisingly got more swing-and-misses than Verlander. James Shields was close behind Sabathia’s 5% above average, for Swing-Miss%, at 4%.
Although “winning” has become significantly less important in statistics, it still has significance. To please the sabemetricists, I added WPA, win-probability-added to the stat pool for “winning”. Leading this category, of course, was Verlander with 1.9 points. The competition wasn’t even close; Jered Weaver scored 1.5 points lower at 0.4. Despite Sabathia’s 19 wins, his number of losses, along with his lower WPA, resulted in a below-average “winning” score.
Now we’ll move to an un-organized category I called Run Allowance. This was basically to find a spot for ERA and FIP, two very important stats. Verlander and Weaver were the front-runners here with 1.0 and 0.6, respectively. CC was right-on average with a score of 0.0. His stats were quite skewed, as his FIP was the same above average, as his ERA was below average. Maybe xFIP should have been added to the mix, but I’m sure the end result would be similar.
Another example of this “skewed-ness” is CC’s batted-ball category. His BABIP was quite a bit sub-par, while his HR/9 was the best of the five pitchers. This gave him a mere 0.1 points, possibly because of some bad BABIP luck. I find it ironic that the #2 of this category, Justin Verlander, had a worse HR/9 than Sabathia, when the first was pitching in Comerica Park, and the latter at tiny Yankee Stadium. Angels’ pitcher, Jered Weaver led the category with his solid performances in both BABIP and HR/9.
The next category I used was “Pitching Quality”. This enveloped the stats- Quality Starts Percentage, WHIP, and Average Game Score (devised by Bill James). Sabathia did not fare too well here at all, with -1.4 points. He was by 0.8 points, the worst in this category, especially in QS% and WHIP. Like usual, Verlander led this category, with 1.2 points followed by Jered Weaver and James Shields. Beckett remained in between Shields and Sabathia with -0.6 points.
In “Value”, which encompasses WAR (wins-above-replacement) and RAR (runs-above-replacement), CC really came back into the race. He tied Justin Verlander for first in the category, with 2.4 points. The two out-valued the others by at least 2 points, which was substantial.
The last category, Durability, essential for an ace, was much closer. For the first time, Rays’ #1 James Shields led, with 1 point. Close behind were Verlander with 0.8, and Sabathia with 0.2 points. Beckett was the least durable, and really, the least horse-like, at 3 points behind the leader of the category.
TIME FOR THE FINAL RESULTS:
These are completely according to the statistical evaluation:
1st Place ~ Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers | 10 points
2nd Place ~ C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees | 2 points
3rd Place ~ Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | 0.6 points
4th Place ~ James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays | -2.5 points
5th Place ~ Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox | -10.6 points
Not the offseason for change
The Yankees concluded their 2011 season in a way that is all too familiar to us. Unfortunately, we have to deal with the sting of yet another brutal first round exit from the playoffs. This one hurts a lot because it was all lined up so perfectly. We had Mariano Rivera and David Robertson available for two innings each, and we were coming home with momentum. All we needed was one big hit and we could not get it. That is the main difference between the Yankees dynasty of the 90s and the last decade. Those teams had players like Bernie, Brosius, Tino, O’Neill, and Jeter who raised their game from the regular season to the playoffs. The teams of the last decade have had better regular seasons than postseasons. However, another disappointing playoff series does not mean that this team should make radical changes this off-season.
Brian Cashman has always said you cannot make decisions based solely on the postseason. He is absolutely correct. The sample size is way too small to be considered worth more than the regular season. Nick Swisher, Mark Teixeira, and Alex Rodriguez obviously were the main goats of this postseason and. The only one of those three you could do anything with is Swisher. Let’s say hypothetically, you do not pick up Swisher’s option, and you replace him with Michael Cuddyer. You cannot guarantee me Cuddyer, or any other replacement, would hit in the playoffs. There is no possible way of knowing. However, I do know that Swisher will produce better in the regular season based on a larger sample size. Plus his 10 million dollar option is cheap and you can go out and find somebody else next year. As for Teixeira and Rodriguez you have to hope they dedicate themselves this off-season to get better. Teixiera needs to improve his mechanics from the left side as his line of .218/.327/.462/.788 suggests. Rodriguez needs to develop an exercise routine that can help him stay on the field. Signing Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder to big bucks is not the answer with all money they have tied into Teixiera and Rodriguez. Texeira and Rodriguez improving is the only option.
This is also not the off-season for radical change because of the big free agent class next year. Matt Kemp is an elite outfielder who could potentially replace Swisher. He is a five tool player and is only 27. He makes much more sense than Pujols or Fielder would. Stud pitchers also will be available like Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Zack Grienke, John Danks, Shaun Marcum, and potentially Dan Haren and James Shields. Some of these guys may also be available at next year’s trade deadline. This is why the Yankees should not blow their money on C.J. Wilson or Yu Darvish this off-season. Sure they will need to sign or trade for a pitcher or two, but it does not have to be for major money. It is also why the Yankees do not have to go completely all out to extend CC Sabathia. I say 6 years at 150 million is a good meeting point. If Sabathia is dead set on 7 years letting him walk is probably the better option. The long term risk of a man who is close to 300 pounds is scary. All those innings will have to take its toll at some point right? Th St.Louis Cardinals are proved you do not need outstanding starting pitch to win a championship. You can win with clutch hitting and an outstanding bullpen. The Texas Rangers also got to the World Series without great starting pitching. So I would defiantly try to extend Sabathia, but it is not a necessity.
This Yankee team needs fine tuning this off-season and not a major overhaul. Winning 97 games in the AL East this year was a major accomplishment and should not be taken lightly. That is the sample size that you should trust more. The postseason is a complete crap shoot that can never be predicted. However, if next year we have similar results in the postseason, we can consider more major moves because there will be elite players out there. The outlook for the Yankees next year is bright and winning the World Series should be within our reach.
NYY vs. OAK – 7/22/11
Lineup:
| Gardner LF |
| Jeter SS |
| Granderson CF |
| Teixeira DH |
| Cano 2B |
| Swisher RF |
| Posada 1B |
| Nunez 3B |
| Cervelli C |
Pitchers:
Phil Hughes (1-2, 8.44) vs. Trevor Cahill (8-8, 3.16)
Some rumor notes:
- The Yanks have reportedly checked in on Joakim Soria, the Royals closer. Can’t imagine it being anything more than due dilligence, as it wouldn’t make sense to give up a top prospect (or two) for an extra closer.
- This isn’t a very surprising piece, but Jon Heyman says the Yankees are looking for a starting pitcher, a left-handed relief pitcher, and a right-handed bat. Looks like the Marcus Thames signing is that right-handed bat.
- According to Buster Olney, the Yankees have asked the Rays about James Shields’ availability, and the Rays said no. This is at least for the Rays’ division rivals: Boston and New York. Mike Axisa of RAB wrote a very detailed profile on James Shields and whether or not he’d be a fit.
Enjoy the game. And don’t forget, if you didn’t check out Ricky’s series preview podcast, here it is: Athletics-Yankees Podcast Preview
UPDATE:
- Joe Girardi said that it is “definitely possible” that Eric Chavez and Rafael Soriano return during this 10-game homestand.
- Lineup is posted.
Sabathia Pitched Strong but Less so than Shields
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NYY
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | |
|
TB
|
1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 2 | 5 | 0 |
- W: Shields (9-8)
- L: Sabathia (14-5)
- SV: Farnsworth (19)
| NY Yankees | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | SO | LOB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner, CF-LF | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .290 |
| Jeter, SS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .264 |
| Teixeira, 1B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .240 |
| Cano, 2B | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .294 |
| Swisher, RF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .253 |
| Posada, DH | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .224 |
| Martin, C | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .218 |
| Nunez, E, 3B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .260 |
| Dickerson, LF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .261 |
| a-Granderson, PH-CF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .270 |
| Totals | 33 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | .257 |
| NY Yankees | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabathia(L, 14-5) | 8.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 2.62 |
| Totals | 8.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 3.44 |
Game Review from MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez:
ST. PETERSBURG — James Shields has done many remarkable things throughout this impressive bounce-back season he’s having. But on Thursday night, he did something that has seemed virtually impossible over the last couple of months.
He beat CC Sabathia.
It took a herculean effort and a fight to the finish, but with 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball, Shields did it. He handed the Yankees a 2-1 defeat at Tropicana Field, and he snapped Sabathia’s seven-game winning streak on the ace left-hander’s 31st birthday.
Yanks Snap 6 Game Losing Streak
From MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch:
ST. PETERSBURG — It had been a week since the Yankees were able to gather in the infield and shake hands, so they were going to enjoy this one for all it was worth.
Alex Rodriguez hit a pair of homers and David Robertson pinned the bases loaded in a big spot, allowing the Yankees to finally exhale with a 6-2 victory over the Rays, snapping their six-game losing streak.
“It was huge. It was desperation,” Rodriguez said. “We definitely needed to win the game; we haven’t won in a while. Hopefully, that’s the start of something good.”
Rodriguez’s second home run off James Shields was a sixth-inning laser that cleared the center-field fence, providing a slim lead, but there could be no guarantees during a stretch when nothing seemed to have gone right.
“It just felt like we needed to win this game,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “I don’t want to say must-win, but this was as close as you can get to a must-win in the month of May.”
Frustration has seeped into the Bombers’ DNA of late, and sure enough, the Rays threatened to extend the misery in the sixth, about the time Ivan Nova was slamming his glove into the dugout bench.
Opening the inning by allowing a walk to Ben Zobrist and a single to Johnny Damon, Nova recorded an out and then loaded the bases intentionally for Robertson, who was asked to perform another of his Houdini acts.
He escaped again, striking out B.J. Upton swinging and Casey Kotchman looking with four-seam fastballs that registered 95 and 96 mph, respectively.
“Big situation,” Robertson said. “I had to get two outs right there with the bases loaded. I can’t let anyone score because we need a win bad. I just gave it everything I had.”
“Robertson is a good pitcher,” Rays manager Joe Maddon said. “That was pretty much the turning point in tonight’s game, I thought.”
Robertson pumped his fist several times and screamed as he bounded off the mound, perhaps the most emotion Robertson has ever shown on a big league ballfield.
“I was a little excited tonight,” Robertson said with a grin. “I’ll try to keep it inside from now on.”
That froze Nova’s line at one run in 5 1/3 innings, having been touched only by Elliot Johnson’s third-inning homer. Nova walked two and struck out four.
“I won the game and it’s important, but my command out there, I don’t feel too good about that,” Nova said. “I know I can do better than what I showed today.”
Rodriguez, meanwhile, has been waiting for his own chance to break out, owning only one previous home run in May — and that one came last Thursday after enduring a 65 at-bat homerless stretch.
But A-Rod got the Yankees on the board in the fourth, belting a 2-2 Shields pitch into the left-field seats — proof positive that his time with hitting coach Kevin Long has been worth it.
“Kevin and I have been working over the last week or so to really focus on my bottom half,” Rodriguez said. “I’m just having some synergy with the whole body. Today was much better.”
Rodriguez added an exclamation mark his next time up with his eighth homer of the season, clapping his hands and flipping them skyward as he rounded first base.
“Sometimes it’s just timing,” Girardi said. “It seems like he has come off [the ball] a little bit lately. He has been trying to fight through it.”
Shields was a tough customer, striking out nine in seven innings, but the Yankees extended their lead in the seventh with two important runs — one unearned.
Back in the lineup after a loud public fiasco, Jorge Posada ripped a double to right that capped a 2-for-3 night, and Brett Gardner laid down a beautiful bunt single.
Recalled earlier in the day from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Chris Dickerson looped a run-scoring single into center field that made it 3-1.
“It’s just one of those days that’s a blur,” Dickerson said. “It ended up working out very well. It felt a little bit like my first Major League hit.”
Derek Jeter followed with a fielder’s-choice grounder that second baseman Ben Zobrist threw away for an error, allowing Gardner to scamper home.
Robertson needed a little help of his own, leaving a two-on, two-out jam for Joba Chamberlain in the seventh, but Damon bounced out to end the inning.
New York added a pair of runs in the ninth off Brandon Gomes, coming on run-scoring hits by Gardner and Jeter, and with victory so close, the Yankees needed to close it out.
Amauri Sanit got a chance to get there in the ninth, but Zobrist’s two-out RBI double was the last straw. Girardi went to Mariano Rivera in a non-save situation for the 27th out, putting an end to a miserable week.
As they whooped it up in the center of the field, Gardner yelled repeatedly, “We won!” as though this May game had implications of a much later date. And there did seem to be an awful lot at stake.
“I think if we had lost today, we’d probably have had to take the bus all the way up to Baltimore tonight,” Gardner said.
| NY Yankees | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | SO | LOB | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeter, SS | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | .253 |
| Granderson, CF | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | .270 |
| Teixeira, 1B | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | .254 |
| Rodriguez, A, 3B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .250 |
| Cano, 2B | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .285 |
| Martin, C | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .252 |
| Posada, DH | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .179 |
| 1-Nunez, E, PR-DH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .304 |
| Gardner, LF | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .265 |
| Dickerson, RF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .333 |
| Totals | 35 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 12 | .250 |
| NY Yankees | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nova(W, 4-3) | 5.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4.33 |
| Robertson, D(H, 8) | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1.62 |
| Chamberlain(H, 9) | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.80 |
| Sanit | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.75 |
| Rivera, Ma | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.42 |
| Totals | 9.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3.83 |




















